2026 Midterm Election Odds: House and Senate
2026 midterm election odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: Democrats near 91% for the House and 60% for the Senate, plus every race that decides control.
Tomas Orgato
Odds & Forecasts Editor
Tomas Orgato
Writes PredictReport's odds coverage: elections, championships, awards and Federal Reserve decisions, priced on Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
11 articles
About Tomas
Tomas Orgato writes PredictReport's odds coverage. Each article starts from the live prices on Polymarket and Kalshi — where the two venues agree, where they do not, and how the numbers have moved — and then adds the context a price alone cannot show: base rates, key dates, how the contract resolves and what could move it next.
The beat spans the markets readers follow most closely: US elections and nominations, NFL, NBA and soccer futures, awards such as the Nobel Peace Prize and the NFL MVP, and Federal Reserve rate decisions. The live versions of these markets are on our arbitrage tracker, which refreshes every ten minutes.
Latest from Tomas
11 total
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds: AOC, Ossoff, Newsom
2028 Democratic nominee odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: Ocasio-Cortez, Ossoff and Newsom lead a wide-open field. Live prices, venue gaps and how it resolves.
Tomas Orgato
2028 Republican Nominee Odds: Vance, Rubio and the Field
2028 Republican nominee odds: J.D. Vance near 51% on Polymarket and 46% on Kalshi, Rubio second. The full field, the Vance arbitrage and how it resolves.
Tomas Orgato
Super Bowl LXI Odds 2027: Polymarket vs Kalshi
Super Bowl LXI odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: the Rams and Bills lead at 11.5%, the 49ers are third. Full board, September moves and a sportsbook comparison.
Tomas Orgato
NFL MVP Odds 2026: Josh Allen Leads the Market
NFL MVP odds for 2026 on Kalshi and Polymarket: Josh Allen at 27.5%, Brock Purdy up to 15.5%. Every contender, the September moves and how the award resolves.
Tomas Orgato
NBA Championship Odds 2027: Thunder, Spurs, Knicks
NBA championship odds for 2027 on Polymarket and Kalshi: Thunder and Spurs near 21%, champion Knicks third. The full board and the cheaper venue for each team.
Tomas Orgato
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Odds: Who Markets Favor
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds before the October 9 announcement: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms and Save the Children lead, plus lessons from the 2025 leak.
Tomas Orgato
Fed Rate Hike Odds: What Markets Expect in October
Fed rate odds after the September 2026 hike: markets price another 25 bp increase at about 55% for October 28, and almost no chance of a rate cut this year.
Tomas Orgato
Prediction Market Odds Explained: Cents to American
Prediction market odds explained: how a price in cents becomes a probability, how to convert it to American and decimal odds, and why prices sum above 100%.
Tomas Orgato
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: The Real Cost Math
Prediction markets vs sports betting compared on fees, odds, taxes, and legality. See which one actually pays you more in 2026.
Tomas Orgato
World Cup 2026 Winner Odds: Who Prediction Markets Favor
World Cup 2026 winner odds from prediction markets: Argentina, France, Brazil, England, and Spain priced head-to-head, plus where to trade the futures.
Tomas Orgato