March Madness is one of the biggest weeks of the year for prediction markets, and the 2027 tournament will be the largest yet. The NCAA has expanded both the men's and women's tournaments to 76 teams starting in 2027, adding an opening round of 12 games, and prediction markets now let traders buy and sell outcomes in every game in states where sports betting is still illegal.
The growth is already visible. Kalshi reported more than $800 million traded during the opening weekend of the 2026 men's tournament, against $208 million in the first two rounds of 2025. This guide covers the 2027 schedule, how tournament contracts work, which states restrict them, the NCAA's opposition and how to trade the bracket without overpaying.
| Round | 2027 dates |
|---|---|
| Selection Sunday | March 14 |
| Opening Round (12 games) | March 16 to 17 |
| First Round | March 18 to 19 |
| Second Round | March 20 to 21 |
| Sweet 16 | March 25 to 26 |
| Elite Eight | March 27 to 28 |
| Final Four | April 3, Ford Field, Detroit |
| National championship | April 5, Ford Field, Detroit |
What Changes in 2027
The NCAA's Division I Board of Governors approved the expansion to 76 teams on May 7, 2026. The field will have 32 automatic bids for conference champions and 44 at-large bids, up from 36. The First Four is replaced by an opening round played on the Tuesday and Wednesday after Selection Sunday, matching the 12 lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the 12 lowest-seeded at-large teams. From the round of 64 onward, the bracket looks as it always has.
For traders, the opening round adds 12 extra games and more volatile tournament futures, since a few more teams can reach the round of 64 and the seeding lines near the bubble change.
How March Madness Contracts Work
Prediction markets list three main kinds of tournament contracts:
- Game winners. A contract that pays $1 if a team wins a given game, the equivalent of a moneyline. A price of 72 cents means the market gives that team about a 72% chance.
- Spreads and totals. Contracts on whether a team wins by more than a set margin, or whether the combined score goes over a line, are listed for many games.
- Futures. Contracts on who wins the championship, who reaches the Final Four or how far a team advances. These open well before Selection Sunday and move through the season.
Unlike a sportsbook bet, you can sell a contract before the game ends, locking in a profit or cutting a loss. Our guide to cashing out early explains how, and prediction market odds explained shows how to convert prices to American odds.
Where You Can Trade the Tournament
Prediction markets are regulated federally by the CFTC, so sports contracts have been available in many states without legal sportsbooks. That map is shrinking. After federal appeals court rulings in 2026, Nevada, Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their gambling laws against sports contracts, and Michigan has a state court order against them. Platforms restrict sports markets in states under such orders. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to settle the question, which could change access before or after the 2027 tournament; our explainer on the Supreme Court case covers the timeline, and our state-by-state map shows current restrictions.
College sports carry an extra layer. Nearly 20 states bar sportsbooks from offering player props on college athletes, and prediction markets have so far steered clear of college player contracts. Kalshi said in 2025 it had no immediate plans to list them, and it shelved proposed markets on college athletes' transfer decisions after the NCAA objected.
The NCAA's Opposition
The NCAA is the most vocal critic of college sports on prediction markets. Its president, Charlie Baker, has said the association "vehemently opposes" them and asked CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to suspend college sports prediction markets until stronger safeguards are in place. He argued that the game, spread and total markets mirror what licensed sportsbooks offer without state oversight. The CFTC has not acted on that request. The integrity worries are not abstract: the platforms' own insider trading rules, which now bar athletes and team staff from trading on their sports, are covered in our guide to prediction market insider trading rules.
How to Trade the Bracket
Shop both venues. Kalshi and Polymarket often price the same game a few cents apart, and our arbitrage scanner shows where they disagree. Polymarket US and Kalshi charge their highest fees on contracts near 50 cents, so compare the all-in cost, explained in our guides to Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees.
Use limit orders on the busiest days. The first Thursday and Friday bring 16 games each and fast-moving prices. A limit order avoids paying the spread on a quick move, and resting orders often pay lower fees or earn rebates.
Think in probabilities, not brackets. Twelve-seeds have historically won roughly a third of their games against five-seeds, so a 12-seed priced near 30 cents is not a long shot. Buy when you think the market is wrong, not when you like the team.
Trade futures before Selection Sunday. Championship and Final Four prices move most when the bracket is revealed and regions are set. Positions taken in February are a bet on seeding as well as strength.
Watch the line between trading and gambling. Prediction market profits are taxable; see our prediction market tax guide. And set limits you can stick to.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you bet on March Madness on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists March Madness game and futures contracts, which trade as event contracts rather than sports bets. Availability depends on your state; some states restrict sports contracts under court orders.
When does March Madness 2027 start?
Selection Sunday is March 14, 2027. The new 12-game opening round is March 16 to 17, the first round starts March 18, and the national championship is April 5 at Ford Field in Detroit.
How many teams are in the 2027 NCAA tournament?
Seventy-six, up from 68. The NCAA approved the expansion in May 2026 for both the men's and women's tournaments.
How much was traded on March Madness on prediction markets?
Kalshi reported more than $800 million traded in the opening weekend of the 2026 men's tournament, nearly double what it handled across the entire 2025 tournament.
Are college player props available on prediction markets?
Generally not. Prediction markets have focused on game, spread, total and futures contracts. Nearly 20 states ban college player props at sportsbooks, and the NCAA strongly opposes them.
Is trading March Madness on prediction markets legal?
The contracts are listed on CFTC-regulated exchanges, but several states have won court rulings letting them enforce gambling laws against sports contracts. Check your state's status before trading.
