Prediction markets make the Democrats favorites to win the 2028 presidential election. On Oct. 27, 2026, Polymarket priced a Democratic win at about 65% and Kalshi at about 60%, with Republicans at roughly 35% and 40%. The election is on Nov. 7, 2028, more than two years away, so these prices will move a great deal, but they already show how traders read the post-Trump field.
This guide covers the party odds, the leading candidates for each nomination, how the markets settle, the dates that will move them and how to read odds this far out.
| Market (Oct. 27, 2026) | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party wins 2028 | 64.5% | 59.5% |
| Republican Party wins 2028 | 34.5% | 40.5% |
The Republican Field
Vice President J.D. Vance is the clear favorite for the Republican nomination at about 38% on Polymarket and 40% on Kalshi. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is second at about 18%. Everyone else is in single digits.
| Republican nominee | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 38.4% | 39.5% |
| Marco Rubio | 18.1% | 18.5% |
| Ron DeSantis | 3.7% | 4.9% |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| Ted Cruz | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Donald Trump | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.8% | 3.7% |
Donald Trump appears in the market despite the 22nd Amendment, which bars anyone from being elected president more than twice. His small price reflects traders' doubt that any legal path to a third term exists, plus the market's habit of keeping long shots alive at a cent or two. Our 2028 Republican nominee odds go deeper on the field.
The Democratic Field
The Democratic race is far more open. Three candidates sit in a near tie in the mid-teens: California Governor Gavin Newsom, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia.
| Democratic nominee | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 16.6% | 14.5% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16.1% | 13.5% |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.7% | 15.5% |
| Kamala Harris | 6.2% | 6.8% |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Andy Beshear | 3.5% | 4.8% |
| Mark Kelly | 2.2% | 3.6% |
Ossoff is also on the ballot in 2026, defending his Senate seat, where markets price him above 94%. A strong re-election would feed straight into his 2028 price. Our 2028 Democratic nominee odds cover each candidate.
The nominee markets are among the largest political markets anywhere: Polymarket's Democratic nominee event had traded about $1.3 billion by late October 2026 and its Republican event about $718 million. The party winner market is much smaller, at about $2.5 million on Polymarket.
Why Markets Lean Democratic
Prediction markets do not explain themselves, but the prices line up with a few observable facts. The party out of the White House usually does well in midterms, and markets price Democrats around 90% to win the House and around 65% to win the Senate in November 2026. Republicans will also be running without an incumbent at the top of the ticket, since Trump cannot run again.
Treat the lean with caution. Two years out, markets have a weak record on presidential winners. Candidates who were little known nationally two years before an election have won it, as Jimmy Carter did in 1976, and the economy, foreign events and the nominees themselves will matter more than anything visible now. Our guide to how accurate prediction markets are explains why long-dated prices are less reliable than prices close to the event.
How the Markets Settle
The party winner market resolves to the party whose candidate wins the 2028 presidential election, and the markets stay open until the result is formally settled, which can run into early 2029. Nominee markets resolve on who is formally nominated at each party's convention in 2028. Check each market's rules for how they handle candidates who drop out, replacements and contested conventions; our guide to how prediction markets resolve covers the general process.
Long-dated markets tie up capital. Money in a contract that settles in late 2028 or early 2029 earns nothing unless the platform pays interest on positions, so compare that cost to the edge you think you have.
Dates That Will Move the Odds
- Nov. 3, 2026: The midterms. A strong or weak Democratic night will move the party market, and candidates on the ballot, such as Ossoff, will be repriced.
- 2027: Candidate announcements. Most serious campaigns launch in the year before the election.
- Early 2028: The primary calendar begins, and nominee markets react to each state's result.
- Summer 2028: The party conventions formally choose the nominees and settle the nominee markets.
- Nov. 7, 2028: Election Day.
Live prices for all three markets are on our 2028 election odds page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?
The Democratic Party, at about 65% on Polymarket and 60% on Kalshi on Oct. 27, 2026. No individual candidate is a clear favorite on the Democratic side.
Who is favored for the 2028 Republican nomination?
J.D. Vance, at about 38% on Polymarket and 40% on Kalshi, followed by Marco Rubio at about 18%.
Who is favored for the 2028 Democratic nomination?
Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff are in a near tie at roughly 13% to 17% each.
When is the 2028 presidential election?
Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2028.
Can Donald Trump run in 2028?
The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice. Markets price Trump's chance of being the Republican nominee at about 2%.
How accurate are prediction markets this far before an election?
Less accurate than close to the event. Two years out, prices reflect today's information, and the field, the economy and world events can all change.
