Two weekends into the NFL season, prediction markets cannot separate the Los Angeles Rams from the Buffalo Bills. Both trade at 11.5¢ on Polymarket to win Super Bowl LXI, with Kalshi quoting the Rams at 11–13¢ and the Bills at 12–13¢. The San Francisco 49ers are third at 8.6¢, and the defending champion Seattle Seahawks sit at 7.5¢.
Those Super Bowl odds for 2027 carry an unusual subplot. Super Bowl LXI will be played on February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood — the Rams' home field. Only two teams have ever played a Super Bowl in their own stadium, and both won: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in February 2021 and the Rams themselves, who beat the Cincinnati Bengals 23–20 at SoFi in February 2022.
Below is the full market as of September 21, 2026, how it has moved since kickoff, where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree, how the prices compare with sportsbook futures, and what a futures ticket actually costs you once fees and time are counted.
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi (bid / ask) | American odds equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.5¢ | 11¢ / 13¢ | +770 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5¢ | 12¢ / 13¢ | +770 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8.6¢ | 8¢ / 9¢ | +1063 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.6¢ | 7¢ / 8¢ | +1216 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.5¢ | 7¢ / 8¢ | +1233 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6.5¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ | +1438 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ | +1718 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4.0¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ | +2400 |
| New England Patriots | 3.9¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ | +2464 |
| Denver Broncos | 3.8¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ | +2532 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.8¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ | +2532 |
| Detroit Lions | 3.5¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ | +2757 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3.0¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ | +3233 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.9¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ | +3348 |
| Chicago Bears | 2.9¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ | +3348 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2.5¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ | +3900 |
American odds are calculated from the Polymarket price with no margin added; a sportsbook would pay less. Prices come from PredictReport's tracker on the morning of September 21, and the live Super Bowl odds page updates every ten minutes. If converting cents to American odds is new, our explainer on prediction market odds covers the maths, and the odds converter does it for any price.
The Favourites: Rams and Bills at 11.5%
An 11.5% favourite is a market that thinks the league is wide open. The leader wins the title about one season in nine at that price, which is the normal state of NFL futures in September: roughly twenty teams have a price above 1¢, and the top of the board is crowded.
The Rams' price has been the most eventful of the contenders. They opened September at 16.5¢, touched 17.5¢ on September 2, fell as low as 10.5¢ on September 13, and now sit at 11.5¢ — a five-point drop since the start of the month. The Bills went the other way, from 8.5¢ to 11.5¢, peaking at 12.5¢ on September 18. Two teams passing each other in the first fortnight of a season is exactly how futures markets absorb early results: the moves are large relative to the prices because the sample is small.
The home-stadium angle is real but modest. Playing the Super Bowl at SoFi removes travel and gives the Rams a friendly crowd, but a team still has to win its conference first. The Los Angeles Chargers also play at SoFi, though the market gives them only 1.3¢. Nobody should pay a premium for geography in September; the Rams' price is about the roster, and the stadium is a tiebreaker at most.
In money terms, $100 on the Rams at 11.5¢ buys about 870 contracts, which pay $870 if they win in February. Whether that is a good bet depends entirely on your own estimate. If you think the Rams are a 15% shot, the contract carries about 3.5¢ of edge per dollar of payout before fees; if you think 10%, you are overpaying. Our expected value calculator runs that comparison for any price and probability, and it is worth doing before every futures purchase rather than after.
The Defending Champion Seahawks at 7.5%
The Seahawks won Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026, beating the New England Patriots 29–13 at Levi's Stadium, with running back Kenneth Walker III named MVP. It was the franchise's second title. The market prices them fifth for a repeat at 7.5¢ on Polymarket and 7–8¢ on Kalshi, up from 6.5¢ at the start of September.
Repeating is hard, and the recent record shows it. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only team this decade to win back-to-back titles, in February 2023 and February 2024, and their attempt at a third straight ended with a 40–22 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. No team has ever won three in a row. A 7.5% price for the champion sits about where history says it should: respected, but not favoured.
The beaten finalist tells a different story. The Patriots, who reached Super Bowl LX, trade at just 3.9¢ on Polymarket and 3–4¢ on Kalshi. The market is not rewarding last season's run, which is the right instinct — beaten Super Bowl finalists have often struggled the following season.
Champions carry a different risk: fan money. Betting markets have a long-documented tendency to overprice popular teams, because supporters buy with their hearts, and a defending champion has more new supporters than anyone. On a two-sided exchange that bias is smaller than on a sportsbook, since sharper traders can sell into it, but it does not disappear. Our guide to prediction market accuracy covers the research on where markets are and are not well calibrated. For the Seahawks, the practical question is whether 7.5% is a fair price for a champion two games into a new season, not whether they are good.
Where the Contenders Sit
The 49ers are the month's big mover, more than doubling from 4.0¢ on September 1 to 8.6¢, and touching 9.8¢ on September 21. The Chiefs have been the most volatile, dropping to 4.7¢ on September 14 and rebounding to 9.2¢ a day later before settling at 7.6¢. Swings of four points in a day on a contract priced under 10¢ are a reminder that futures books are thinner than they look; our guide to prediction market liquidity explains why.
The Baltimore Ravens have drifted slightly, from 7.2¢ to 6.5¢, while the Bengals have risen from 3.5¢ to 5.5¢. The Philadelphia Eagles, champions two seasons ago, are the one contender where the venues disagree meaningfully: 4.0¢ on Polymarket against a Kalshi quote of 5–6¢. If you like the Eagles, Polymarket is the cheaper place to buy them.
How the Super Bowl Odds Moved Since Kickoff
| Team | Sept 1 | Sept 21 | Change | September range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 16.5¢ | 11.5¢ | −5.0 | 10.5¢ – 17.5¢ |
| Buffalo Bills | 8.5¢ | 11.5¢ | +3.0 | 7.5¢ – 12.5¢ |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4.0¢ | 8.6¢ | +4.6 | 4.0¢ – 9.8¢ |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6.2¢ | 7.6¢ | +1.4 | 4.7¢ – 9.2¢ |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6.5¢ | 7.5¢ | +1.0 | 6.5¢ – 7.5¢ |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7.2¢ | 6.5¢ | −0.7 | 6.5¢ – 10.0¢ |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3.5¢ | 5.5¢ | +2.0 | 3.5¢ – 5.5¢ |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4.3¢ | 4.0¢ | −0.3 | 4.0¢ – 5.9¢ |
Polymarket prices from PredictReport's tracker, which records every move of half a point or more on both venues. The pattern is typical of early-season futures: the preseason favourite gives ground, two or three teams with strong starts climb, and everything below 5¢ barely moves. The live page shows today's numbers against these.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on Super Bowl Futures
On this market, Kalshi is the bigger venue: about 127 million contracts traded against roughly $58 million on Polymarket. That reflects Kalshi's position as the default sports venue for US traders, which our ranking of the best prediction markets for sports betting covers in detail.
The two venues agree closely on the favourites. Where they differ is the cost of buying the whole field. Add up the price to buy one contract on every team at the ask, and Polymarket costs about $1.055 for a $1 payout — an overround of 5.5%. On Kalshi the same exercise costs about $1.21, an overround of 21%. Almost all of that difference sits in the long shots: Kalshi quotes most teams below 2¢ with a 1¢ or 2¢ ask even when the contract is worth less, while Polymarket prices them at fractions of a cent.
The practical rule follows. For favourites, compare both venues and buy the cheaper one. For long shots, Polymarket is almost always cheaper, because a 1¢ minimum ask on a team worth 0.4¢ is a 150% premium. Our vig guide explains overround, and the vig calculator measures it for any set of prices.
Right now our arbitrage scanner shows no locked-in opportunity on the Super Bowl. The gaps on individual teams are smaller than the fees and spreads needed to trade them on both venues at once.
Converting Super Bowl Odds to Sportsbook Terms
A sportsbook pricing the Rams at the same 11.5% chance would list them below +770, because it builds its margin into every price on the board. That margin, which on futures is large — a sportsbook futures board commonly adds up to far more than 100%, because the book has to protect itself against sharp money on long-dated positions.
That is the core advantage prediction markets offer on futures. There is no house setting the price, so the margin is whatever the order book leaves after competition. On Polymarket, that leaves about 5.5% across the whole Super Bowl field; on the favourites alone, both venues are tighter still. Our comparison of prediction markets and sports betting walks through the structural differences, and our cost maths breakdown puts numbers on them.
There is one more difference that matters for futures. A sportsbook futures ticket is locked; a prediction market contract can be sold at any time the market is open. If the Bills go on a run and their price doubles by December, you can take the profit without waiting for February. Our guide to cashing out early explains how, and when it makes sense.
Why Futures Are a Long Hold
A Super Bowl contract bought today settles after February 14, 2027, nearly five months away. That has two costs that do not appear on the order ticket.
The first is the capital. Money in a futures contract earns nothing while it waits, whereas Kalshi pays roughly 4% a year on idle cash. Over five months, that is about 1.7% of your stake — not large, but enough to erase a thin edge. The second is the path. To win the Super Bowl, a team has to finish the regular season, reach the playoffs, and win three or four straight games against the best teams in the league. A team priced at 11.5% needs roughly a 55–60% chance in each of those playoff games, which is why even strong favourites sit at low prices.
That second point is why selling during the season is often better than holding. If a team you bought at 5¢ is trading at 20¢ before the playoffs, you have quadrupled your money without taking any of the single-elimination risk. Our expected value guide explains how to think about when to take a profit.
The Super Bowl market also moves in step with the individual awards. A quarterback whose team is climbing the futures board usually climbs the MVP board too, and traders sometimes hold both as a single view on one team. Our NFL MVP odds cover that market, where Josh Allen's price has more than doubled since September 1.
How to Trade Super Bowl Futures
For US traders, Kalshi is the regulated default for sports, with dollars in and out and deep NFL books. Polymarket offers the tighter long-shot pricing and settles in USDC. Novig is a zero-commission alternative for sports specifically — see our Novig review. Our ranking of the best prediction market apps compares every option, and if you are new, start with how prediction markets work.
Fees are small on futures but worth knowing. Kalshi charges 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), so 100 Rams contracts at 12¢ cost about $0.74 in fees on top of the $12 stake. Polymarket's taker fee runs 0.75–1.80% depending on market category, and resting limit orders avoid it entirely. Our market fee calculator runs both formulas, and our guide to limit orders explains how to avoid crossing the spread.
Sports contracts are the most contested part of the legal fight over prediction markets, and access varies by state; our state-by-state legal map is the place to check. Profits are taxable when realised, and Kalshi issues a 1099-MISC — see our prediction market tax guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win Super Bowl LXI?
The Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills are joint favourites at 11.5¢ on Polymarket as of September 21, 2026. Kalshi quotes the Rams at 11–13¢ and the Bills at 12–13¢.
When and where is Super Bowl LXI?
February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. It is the Rams' home stadium, and the Rams won Super Bowl LVI there in February 2022.
Who won the last Super Bowl?
The Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots 29–13 in Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026. Prediction markets price a Seahawks repeat at about 7.5¢.
What are the Chiefs' odds to win the Super Bowl?
About 7.6¢ on Polymarket and 7–8¢ on Kalshi, which is roughly +1216 in American odds. Their price has been the most volatile among contenders this month, ranging from 4.7¢ to 9.2¢.
Is it cheaper to bet Super Bowl futures on Polymarket or Kalshi?
For long shots, Polymarket is usually cheaper because Kalshi's minimum ask is often 1–2¢. Buying every team costs about $1.055 on Polymarket against $1.21 on Kalshi. For favourites, compare both. See Polymarket vs Kalshi.
Can I sell a Super Bowl futures contract before the game?
Yes. Prediction market contracts can be sold whenever the market is open, unlike most sportsbook futures. Our guide to cashing out early explains how.
How do Super Bowl prediction market odds compare with sportsbooks?
Prediction markets usually pay more on futures because there is no house margin. A 11.5¢ contract implies +770, while a sportsbook would typically list the same team at a lower price.
Are Super Bowl prediction markets legal?
Kalshi offers them as a CFTC-regulated exchange, but several states contest sports event contracts. Check our legal map for your state.
