The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize at 11:00 CEST on Friday, October 9, and prediction markets have no clear favourite. As of September 21, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead on Polymarket at 13.1¢, Save the Children follows at 10.1¢, and Yulia Navalnaya is third at 7.5¢. Kalshi agrees on the order but prices the top two a little lower.
Those Nobel Peace Prize odds come with more history than most markets. Last year, Polymarket's price on María Corina Machado jumped from 3.75% to 72.8% in the two hours before the 2025 announcement, a move that turned out to be right and triggered an investigation into whether the winner had leaked. The Norwegian Nobel Institute concluded in February 2026 that a cyberattack was the most likely source, though it could not identify who was responsible.
That episode is the backdrop to everything below: the current board, why this market swings so violently, what the committee's history suggests, and why the most important trading rule for the Nobel is to be careful about what a sudden price move means.
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi (bid / ask) | American odds equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 13.1¢ | 11¢ / 12¢ | +663 |
| Save the Children | 10.1¢ | 10¢ / 12¢ | +890 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7.5¢ | 7¢ / 10¢ | +1233 |
| International Court of Justice | 5.5¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ | +1718 |
| UNRWA | 5.2¢ | 3¢ / 5¢ | +1823 |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 4.5¢ | 2¢ / 6¢ | +2122 |
| Donald Trump | 2.1¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ | +4662 |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 1.9¢ | 1¢ / 2.9¢ | +5163 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 1.8¢ | 0¢ / 3¢ | +5456 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 0.9¢ | 1¢ / 3¢ | — |
American odds are calculated from the Polymarket price with no margin added. Prices come from PredictReport's tracker on the morning of September 21, and the live Nobel Peace Prize odds page updates every ten minutes. The conversion from cents to odds is explained in our guide to prediction market odds.
How the Nobel Peace Prize Is Decided
The prize is chosen by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, five members appointed by the Norwegian parliament. For 2026 it considered 287 candidates — 208 individuals and 79 organisations — nominated by people eligible under the Nobel statutes, including members of national parliaments, university professors in relevant fields and former laureates.
The nominations are sealed for 50 years. That single rule shapes the whole market. Nobody outside the committee knows who is on the shortlist, so prices are built from public nominations that nominators chose to announce, from the committee's past preferences, and from speculation. A candidate trading at 13¢ is not a leaked frontrunner; it is the crowd's best guess about a decision made in private.
The prize is announced on a fixed date and presented in Oslo on December 10. The contract resolves on the announcement, and the committee can split the prize among up to three laureates. Our explainer on how prediction markets resolve covers how shared awards and similar edge cases are handled — read each venue's rules on joint winners before you trade, because they decide what your contract pays.
The Favourites: Humanitarian Organisations Lead
The top of the board says the market expects the committee to recognise humanitarian work in a war zone. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms are grassroots volunteer networks that have provided food, water and medical help during Sudan's civil war. Save the Children is one of the oldest international children's charities, founded in 1919. Together they carry about 23% of the probability on Polymarket.
Organisations have a long record with this committee. The International Committee of the Red Cross has won three times, the UN refugee agency twice, and recent laureates include the World Food Programme in 2020 and the Japanese survivors' organisation Nihon Hidankyo in 2024. A humanitarian group as the 2026 laureate would fit that pattern, and the market is pricing it. The two venues agree on the order at the top, which our live board tracks every ten minutes, but Kalshi's wide quotes — 10¢ to 12¢ on Save the Children — make Polymarket the better place to see where the consensus sits.
The International Court of Justice at 5.5¢ and UNRWA at 5.2¢ represent the same idea from different angles: institutions under political pressure whose work the committee might choose to defend. The Committee to Protect Journalists, at 4.5¢, reflects the committee's recent interest in press freedom — journalists Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov shared the 2021 prize.
The Individual Candidates
Yulia Navalnaya is the leading individual at 7.5¢ on Polymarket and 7–10¢ on Kalshi. She has continued the opposition work of her husband, Alexei Navalny, who died in a Russian Arctic prison in February 2024. The committee has recognised Russian and Belarusian civil society before, most recently in 2022.
Donald Trump trades at 2.1¢ on Polymarket and 3–4¢ on Kalshi. He has made no secret of wanting the prize and has been publicly nominated by several governments. The market's view is that the committee is unlikely to award it, and the price has fallen from a September peak of 7.3¢ on Polymarket. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Pope Leo XIV sit below 2¢ on Polymarket, each representing a different theory about which peace efforts the committee might reward.
Notice how little probability the named candidates carry together. The twelve names quoted on both venues add up to barely over half the probability on Polymarket; the rest is spread across dozens of other nominees. That is the market being honest about how often the committee surprises. Our guide to prediction market accuracy covers why a crowded field produces low prices even for genuine favourites.
Recent Nobel Peace Prize Winners
The committee's recent choices are the best guide to how it thinks, and they show a clear alternation between individuals defending rights under repressive governments and organisations doing humanitarian or disarmament work.
| Year | Laureate | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | María Corina Machado | Individual, Venezuelan opposition leader |
| 2024 | Nihon Hidankyo | Organisation, atomic bomb survivors |
| 2023 | Narges Mohammadi | Individual, Iranian rights activist |
| 2022 | Ales Bialiatski, Memorial, Center for Civil Liberties | Individual and two organisations |
| 2021 | Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov | Two journalists |
| 2020 | World Food Programme | Organisation, UN humanitarian agency |
Two things stand out. The committee rarely rewards a head of state or government for a peace process still in progress, which is part of why sitting leaders trade at low prices. And it regularly picks a winner the public conversation barely mentioned — Nihon Hidankyo was not widely tipped in 2024. That is the reason the whole named field adds up to only about half the probability. For more on how prices behave when the true answer is hidden, our guide to expected value explains how to think about a market where the favourite is below 15%.
Why Nobel Prices Swing So Violently
This is one of the most volatile markets we track, and the swings are not all information. On the evening of September 19, a Polymarket trade put Save the Children at 31.4¢ while Kalshi's midpoint stood at 12¢. On September 20, UNRWA printed at 20.5¢ on Polymarket against 4¢ on Kalshi. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms touched 19.3¢. All three moves reversed.
| Candidate | Polymarket peak (September) | Kalshi at that moment | Polymarket on Sept 21 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Save the Children | 31.4¢ (Sept 19) | 12.0¢ | 10.1¢ |
| UNRWA | 20.5¢ (Sept 20) | 4.0¢ | 5.2¢ |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 19.3¢ (Sept 19) | 11.0¢ | 13.1¢ |
| International Court of Justice | 8.6¢ (Sept 7) | 3.5¢ | 5.5¢ |
| Donald Trump | 7.3¢ (Sept 14) | 5.5¢ | 2.1¢ |
The explanation is structural. Polymarket's Nobel market has traded about $24 million in total, but that volume is spread across dozens of outcomes, and each individual book is thin. A single large buy order can walk the price up several levels before anyone sells into it. Kalshi's version, at about 1.1 million contracts, is smaller overall but did not follow the spikes, which is a strong sign they were single orders rather than news.
The lesson is to treat any sudden Nobel move as a question, not an answer. Check whether the other venue moved, check whether any public news exists, and check the size behind the new price. Our guide to prediction market liquidity explains how to read an order book before trusting a price.
The 2025 Machado Leak and What It Means for Traders
On October 10, 2025, María Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize. In the roughly two hours before the announcement, her Polymarket price rose from 3.75% to 72.8%. Norwegian outlet Finansavisen reported that a newly created account with no trading history bet about $70,000 on her and made about $30,000, and that two other accounts focused on Machado made about $90,000 between them. The Norwegian Nobel Institute opened an inquiry and in February 2026 said a cyberattack was the most likely source of the leak.
The episode matters for 2026 in two ways. First, it showed that Nobel markets can be the target of people trading on stolen information, which puts anyone on the other side of those trades at a disadvantage they cannot see. Second, it showed that a very late, very large move in this market can be meaningful — the Machado move was right. That combination makes the final hours before October 9 the most dangerous time to be in this market. Our analysis of insider trading regulation for prediction markets covers the rules and the enforcement gaps.
The Nobel Institute will almost certainly have tightened its security since then. But the market cannot know whether a given move is a leak, a large informed trader, or a single speculative order. The right response is to size positions so that being on the wrong side of a leak does not hurt badly, and to avoid adding exposure in the final hours unless you know exactly why the price is moving.
What to Watch Before October 9
Three things tend to move this market in the final weeks. The first is public nominations: nominators are free to announce who they nominated, and a nomination from a prominent parliamentarian can lift a candidate's price for days. The second is expert shortlists, such as the one the director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo publishes each year, which traders treat as informed opinion. The third is news about the candidates themselves, particularly any breakthrough in a conflict that a candidate is associated with.
None of these reveals the committee's decision, and the history shows that the committee often goes its own way. Treat each as a reason to reconsider your estimate, not as a signal to chase. If a candidate's price doubles on a shortlist mention, the question is whether the shortlist told you anything the committee does not already know. Our odds converter is useful here: moving from 5¢ to 10¢ looks small in cents, but it is the difference between +1900 and +900.
How the Nobel Market Compares With Sportsbooks and Other Venues
Most US sportsbooks do not offer Nobel Prize markets, which makes prediction markets one of the few legal ways for US residents to trade the outcome. Kalshi lists it as a regulated event contract; Polymarket offers the deeper book internationally. Our Kalshi review and Polymarket review cover each venue.
On this market, Polymarket is the deeper venue and generally the better one to trade, provided you use limit orders and ignore stray prints. Kalshi's quotes are wider — 7¢ to 10¢ on Navalnaya, 2¢ to 6¢ on the Committee to Protect Journalists — and its book is small. Where the two disagree, the gap usually reflects Kalshi's thinner book rather than an opportunity, which is why our arbitrage scanner shows nothing on the Nobel market today.
How to Trade the Nobel Peace Prize Market
Decide your view before October, because the final week is the worst time to form one. Use limit orders, never market orders — in books this thin, a market order can fill several cents above the price you saw. Our guide to limit orders explains how to set them.
Size small. Even the favourite is below 15%, which means it loses more than eight times in nine at that price. A basket of three or four organisations you think the committee favours is a more sensible structure than a large position on one name, and our expected value calculator helps check whether each price is worth paying.
For first-time traders, how prediction markets work covers the basics, and our ranking of the best prediction market apps compares the venues. Kalshi's fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), so small at these prices; our market fee calculator runs the numbers. Profits are taxable when realised — see our prediction market tax guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announced?
On Friday, October 9, 2026, at 11:00 CEST, by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo. The award ceremony follows on December 10.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, at 13.1¢ on Polymarket and 11–12¢ on Kalshi as of September 21, 2026. Save the Children is second at about 10¢, and Yulia Navalnaya is the leading individual at 7.5¢.
What are Donald Trump's odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize?
About 2.1¢ on Polymarket and 3–4¢ on Kalshi. His price peaked at 7.3¢ on Polymarket in mid-September before falling back.
How many people are nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
There are 287 candidates — 208 individuals and 79 organisations. The list is kept secret for 50 years, so markets trade on publicly announced nominations and speculation.
What happened with Polymarket and the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize?
María Corina Machado's price jumped from 3.75% to 72.8% in the two hours before the announcement. The Norwegian Nobel Institute investigated and concluded in February 2026 that a cyberattack was the likely source of the leak. See our guide to insider trading in prediction markets.
Why do Nobel Prize odds jump so suddenly?
Each outcome has a thin order book, so a single large order can move the price several points. In September 2026, Polymarket printed Save the Children at 31.4¢ while Kalshi stood at 12¢, and the move reversed. Our guide to liquidity explains why.
Can Americans bet on the Nobel Peace Prize?
Yes, through Kalshi, which lists it as a CFTC-regulated event contract. Most US sportsbooks do not offer Nobel markets.
What happens if the Nobel Peace Prize is shared?
It depends on each venue's rules, which specify how joint laureates are settled. Read them before trading, because a shared award can change what your contract pays.
