Prediction Market Insider Trading Regulation 2026
Prediction market insider trading in 2026: the Maduro and Google charges, new Kalshi and Polymarket rules, the Schiff-Curtis bill, CFTC rules and court fights.
Miriam Velde
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Blog
Best Prediction Market Apps: 2026 Rankings
We ranked the best prediction market apps for 2026 by fees, liquidity, and legality — Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, and five more platforms compared.
Alex Copert
How Prediction Markets Settle Election Night 2026
How Kalshi and Polymarket settle the 2026 midterms: media calls vs the Speaker vote, recounts, runoffs, independents, current House and Senate odds and tips.
Miriam Velde
Supreme Court and Prediction Markets: The Case Explained
The Supreme Court prediction markets case explained: New Jersey's petition against Kalshi, the circuit split, the timeline and what a ruling would change.
Miriam Velde
Kalshi IPO: Valuation, Timing and How to Invest
Kalshi IPO explained: what the company has said about going public, its climb from a $2 billion to a $40 billion valuation, likely timing and how to get exposure.
Alex Copert
FOMC Meeting Schedule 2027 and Fed Rate Odds
The FOMC meeting schedule for 2027, which meetings bring new projections, and how Kalshi and Polymarket price Fed rate decisions after the 2026 hike.
Tomas Orgato
TIME Person of the Year 2026 Odds: Mamdani Leads
TIME Person of the Year 2026 odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: Zohran Mamdani leads Mark Carney and Pope Leo XIV. How the markets settle and what history says.
Tomas Orgato
AI Prediction Markets: Trading OpenAI, Anthropic and Google
AI prediction markets explained: trading model releases, leaderboards and AI IPOs like Anthropic's on Kalshi and Polymarket, and why insider trading is the big risk.
Alex Copert
Prediction Market Stocks: How to Invest in the Boom
Prediction market stocks explained: the listed companies that earn from event contracts, from Robinhood and ICE to DraftKings, and the risks behind the boom.
Alex Copert
Polymarket Token and Airdrop: What's Actually Confirmed
Polymarket token and airdrop: what Polymarket has confirmed, what it hasn't, how eligibility might work, US restrictions, and how to avoid fake airdrop scams.
Alex Copert
Coinbase Prediction Markets: How They Work and What They Cost
Coinbase prediction markets explained: Kalshi-powered event contracts in the Coinbase app, how to trade with USD or USDC, fees, state limits and alternatives.
Alex Copert
Kalshi Perpetual Futures Explained: How Perps Work
Kalshi perpetual futures explained: how perps work, funding every eight hours, leverage and liquidation, how they differ from event contracts and the risks.
Alex Copert
Kalshi API Guide: Market Data, Keys and Rate Limits
Kalshi API guide: base URLs, free market data endpoints, API keys and request signing, order books, WebSockets and rate limits, with working examples.
Alex Copert
Mention Markets Explained: Trading What People Say
Mention markets explained: how contracts on words said in speeches, press conferences, earnings calls and broadcasts work, how they settle, and the traps.
Alex Copert
March Madness 2027 on Prediction Markets: Full Guide
March Madness 2027 on Kalshi and Polymarket: the new 76-team bracket, key dates, how tournament contracts work, which states restrict them and fees.
Tomas Orgato
Oscars 2027 Odds: How to Trade the Academy Awards
Oscars 2027 on Kalshi and Polymarket: key dates for the 99th Academy Awards, how Oscar markets settle, how accurate they were in 2026, and how to trade them.
Tomas Orgato
2028 Presidential Election Odds: Which Party Wins?
2028 presidential election odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: Democrats favored to win the White House, with Vance, Newsom, AOC and Ossoff leading the nomination races.
Tomas Orgato
2026 Midterm Election Odds: House and Senate
2026 midterm election odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: Democrats near 91% for the House and 60% for the Senate, plus every race that decides control.
Tomas Orgato
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds: AOC, Ossoff, Newsom
2028 Democratic nominee odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: Ocasio-Cortez, Ossoff and Newsom lead a wide-open field. Live prices, venue gaps and how it resolves.
Tomas Orgato
2028 Republican Nominee Odds: Vance, Rubio and the Field
2028 Republican nominee odds: J.D. Vance near 51% on Polymarket and 46% on Kalshi, Rubio second. The full field, the Vance arbitrage and how it resolves.
Tomas Orgato
Super Bowl LXI Odds 2027: Polymarket vs Kalshi
Super Bowl LXI odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: the Rams and Bills lead at 11.5%, the 49ers are third. Full board, September moves and a sportsbook comparison.
Tomas Orgato
NFL MVP Odds 2026: Josh Allen Leads the Market
NFL MVP odds for 2026 on Kalshi and Polymarket: Josh Allen at 27.5%, Brock Purdy up to 15.5%. Every contender, the September moves and how the award resolves.
Tomas Orgato
NBA Championship Odds 2027: Thunder, Spurs, Knicks
NBA championship odds for 2027 on Polymarket and Kalshi: Thunder and Spurs near 21%, champion Knicks third. The full board and the cheaper venue for each team.
Tomas Orgato
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Odds Before Navi Pillay's Win
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds before the October 9 announcement: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms and Save the Children led, then Navi Pillay won.
Tomas Orgato
Fed Rate Hike Odds: What Markets Expect in October
Fed rate odds after the September 2026 hike: markets price another 25 bp increase at about 55% for October 28, and almost no chance of a rate cut this year.
Tomas Orgato
Prediction Market Odds Explained: Cents to American
Prediction market odds explained: how a price in cents becomes a probability, how to convert it to American and decimal odds, and why prices sum above 100%.
Tomas Orgato
How to Cash Out Early on Polymarket and Kalshi
How to cash out early on Polymarket and Kalshi: selling before resolution, what exiting really costs, when to sell or hold, and how to lock in a freeroll.
Alex Copert
Limit Orders on Polymarket and Kalshi Explained
Limit orders on Polymarket and Kalshi explained: how they work, what market orders really cost, where to set your limit price, and the risks of waiting.
Alex Copert
How to Hedge With Prediction Markets
How to hedge with prediction markets: lock in sportsbook futures, offset rate and crypto risk, cover weather and political exposure, and size every hedge.
Alex Copert
Bitcoin Prediction Markets: How BTC Contracts Work
Bitcoin prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket: contract types, settlement on CF Benchmarks, Chainlink and Binance, and why prices flip at the close.
Alex Copert
How to Trade CPI and Jobs Markets on Kalshi
How to trade Kalshi economic data markets: CPI, jobs, unemployment and GDP brackets, how they settle on first releases, and what happens when data is late.
Alex Copert
Market Making on Prediction Markets Explained
Market making on prediction markets explained: how makers earn spread, rebates and rewards on Polymarket and Kalshi, and the adverse selection that sinks most.
Alex Copert
Kalshi Weather Markets: How Temperature Contracts Work
Kalshi weather markets explained: daily high temperature ranges settled on the NWS Daily Climate Report, which station counts, and where traders find an edge.
Alex Copert
How the CFTC Regulates Prediction Markets
How the CFTC regulates prediction markets: designated contract markets, self-certification, the Kalshi election case and the state fight over sports contracts.
Miriam Velde
Prediction Market KYC: Why Platforms Verify ID
Prediction market KYC explained: what Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig and Robinhood ask for, why regulated venues verify identity, and how to fix stalled checks.
Miriam Velde
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? The Evidence
How accurate are prediction markets? Brier scores, calibration, the Iowa Electronic Markets record, famous misses and the biases that still distort prices.
Arnold Vezcasi
Free Prediction Market Tools Worth Using in 2026
Free prediction market tools worth using: a Polymarket vs Kalshi price comparison, fee, vig and EV calculators, on-chain data, APIs and a trading journal.
Arnold Vezcasi
Is Kalshi Legit and Safe? 2026 Review
Is Kalshi legit? A CFTC-regulated exchange with segregated funds and dollar settlement. What its licence protects, what it does not, and the risks that remain.
Miriam Velde
Expected Value in Prediction Markets Explained
Expected value on a prediction market is your probability minus the price. How to calculate it, why fees break small edges, and why positive EV is not a win.
Alex Copert
Are Prediction Markets Gambling?
Are prediction markets gambling? Legally they are CFTC-regulated derivatives, but several states disagree. What each side argues and where the courts stand.
Miriam Velde
Kalshi vs DraftKings: Which Wins in 2026?
Kalshi vs DraftKings compared on fees, regulation, sports coverage, and app experience. See which prediction market platform actually deserves your money in 2026.
Alex Copert
How to Withdraw Money from Kalshi
How to withdraw from Kalshi step by step: timing, costs, why withdrawals get held up, and how it compares with cashing out of Polymarket.
Alex Copert
How Prediction Markets Resolve and Settle
How Polymarket and Kalshi resolve contracts, why two venues can settle the same event differently, and how to read a rulebook before you trade.
Miriam Velde
Novig vs Kalshi: Which Is Better in 2026?
Novig vs Kalshi compared on fees, markets, liquidity and regulation. Novig charges zero commission; Kalshi pays 4% on idle cash and lists far more markets.
Alex Copert
Prediction Market Liquidity and Spreads Explained
Why the spread costs more than the fee on most prediction markets. How to read an order book, judge depth, and avoid paying for illiquidity.
Alex Copert
What Is Vig in Prediction Markets?
What vig means in prediction markets, how to measure the hold in any market, and how to strip it out to find true no-vig fair value. With worked examples.
Alex Copert
Prediction Markets for Beginners: Your First Trade
A beginner's walkthrough to your first prediction market trade: choosing a venue, funding, reading a market, placing an order, and the mistakes to avoid.
Arnold Vezcasi
Prediction Market Glossary: Every Term Explained
Every prediction market term explained plainly: contracts, vig, spread, maker and taker, Brier scores, DCM licences, oracles and more.
Arnold Vezcasi
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: The Real Cost Math
Prediction markets vs sports betting compared on fees, odds, taxes, and legality. See which one actually pays you more in 2026.
Tomas Orgato
Every Prediction Market Reviewed: 2026 Rankings
Every major prediction market reviewed and ranked for 2026 — fees, regulation, market breadth, and payout speed compared across all 10 platforms.
Alex Copert
Where Is Polymarket Legal in 2026? The Real Answer
Polymarket is legal in the US again through its CFTC-regulated US app, while the global site restricts the UK, France, Australia and others. The full 2026 map.
Miriam Velde
Best Prediction Market Apps for Sports and Politics
Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and more ranked for sports and politics betting in 2026, with fees, volume data and who each platform actually fits.
Alex Copert
12 Best Apps Like Polymarket in 2026
Looking for apps like Polymarket? We rank Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com, PredictStreet, and 8 more prediction market alternatives by fees, liquidity, and legality.
Alex Copert
The Evolution of Prediction Markets: 1988 to 2026
From a University of Iowa classroom experiment to a $63.5B industry — trace the evolution of prediction markets through Intrade, Augur, Polymarket, and Kalshi.
Alex Copert
2026 Midterms Prediction Markets: How to Trade Them
A complete guide to 2026 midterms prediction markets: where to trade House and Senate control, fees, legal risk, taxes, and strategy for election season.
Alex Copert
Robinhood vs Kalshi: Which Should You Trade in 2026?
Robinhood vs Kalshi compared: fees, sports markets, UX, and regulation. Both run on Kalshi's exchange — here's why that still matters in 2026.
Alex Copert
World Cup 2026 Winner Odds: How Markets Priced Champion Spain
How prediction markets priced the World Cup 2026 winner before kickoff: Argentina the narrow favourite, Spain fifth at 9-11%, and what Spain's title shows.
Tomas Orgato
How to Make Money on Prediction Markets in 2026
Learn how to make money on prediction markets in 2026: real arbitrage, market making, copytrading, and sports-data edges that actually generate profit.
Alex Copert
Is Polymarket Legit and Safe in 2026?
Is Polymarket legit and safe to use? We break down its regulatory status, custody model, fees, and track record with real numbers and honest risks.
Alex Copert
PredictStreet vs Polymarket: 2026 Comparison
PredictStreet vs Polymarket compared on regulation, fees, liquidity, and World Cup markets. See which prediction market actually deserves your money in 2026.
Alex Copert
Kalshi Fees Explained: The Full 2026 Breakdown
Kalshi fees explained: the real trading fee formula, maker/taker rules, withdrawal costs, and how Kalshi's fee structure compares to Polymarket in 2026.
Alex Copert
How to Deposit on Kalshi: Complete 2026 Guide
Learn how to deposit on Kalshi via bank transfer, debit card, wire, or crypto. Compare fees, speeds, and minimums for every Kalshi deposit method in 2026.
Alex Copert
Prediction Market Promo Codes & Bonuses 2026
Real prediction market promo codes and bonuses for 2026, what Polymarket and Kalshi actually offer, and how to spot the scam sites promising fake deposit bonuses.
Alex Copert
Prediction Markets Legal States: The 2026 State-by-State Map
See which US states allow Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026, which have restricted or banned them, and why the legal picture keeps shifting state by state.
Miriam Velde
Best Prediction Market APIs for Builders in 2026
The best prediction market API options in 2026 for building bots, dashboards, and data tools on Polymarket, Kalshi, and beyond.
Alex Copert
How to Withdraw from Polymarket: Full 2026 Guide
Learn how to withdraw from Polymarket in 2026 — USDC transfers, fiat off-ramps, fees, delays, and tax reporting rules explained step by step.
Alex Copert
Copytrading on Polymarket in 2026: A Full Guide
Copytrading on Polymarket in 2026 means mirroring public wallets on-chain. Here's how it works, the best tools, and the risks nobody mentions.
Alex Copert
Best Prediction Markets to Bet World Cup 2026
Compare the best prediction markets for World Cup 2026 betting — Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictStreet and more, ranked by fees, odds, and liquidity.
Alex Copert
Polymarket Fees Explained: Taker, Maker & Withdrawal Costs
Polymarket fees explained: taker fees of 0.75-1.80%, free maker orders, gas costs on Polygon, and how they compare to Kalshi's per-contract pricing.
Alex Copert
How to Sign Up on AdiPredictStreet in 2026
A step-by-step guide to Adi PredictStreet sign up, registration, and KYC verification—everything you need to start trading in minutes.
How To Deposit On Polymarket
How to deposit on Polymarket in 2026: every way to fund your account with USDC on Polygon, from cards and exchanges to crypto wallets, with fees and pitfalls.
Alex Copert
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: What's The Difference?
Prediction markets vs sports betting: how exchange contracts differ from sportsbook bets on pricing, fees, regulation, account limits and taxes.
Alex Copert
How Prediction Market Winnings Are Taxed in 2026: What the IRS Hasn't Told You
How prediction market winnings are taxed in 2026: the three treatments filers use, what Kalshi and Polymarket report, and how to file with no IRS guidance.
Miriam Velde
How Prediction Markets Work: The Complete Guide for 2026
How prediction markets work, explained from first principles: contracts, prices as probabilities, order books, fees, settlement and where to trade in 2026.
Alex Copert
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? The Complete 2026 Guide
Are prediction markets legal in the US? The federal framework, CFTC oversight, the state lawsuits and bills, and what each one means for traders in 2026.
Alex Copert
Best Prediction Markets for Sports Betting in 2026
The best prediction markets for sports betting in 2026, ranked: Kalshi, Robinhood, OG, Polymarket and more, compared on coverage, fees and access.
Alex Copert
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Should You Use in 2026?
Polymarket vs Kalshi compared for 2026: fees, markets, regulation, deposits and liquidity. Where each prediction market wins, and which suits how you trade.
Alex Copert
How to Arbitrage Prediction Markets: A Step-by-Step Guide
How to arbitrage prediction markets between Polymarket and Kalshi, step by step: finding price gaps, sizing both legs, and the fees and risks that erase profit.
Alex Copert
The AI Trading Bots Eating Prediction Markets Alive
How AI trading bots and algorithmic strategies moved into prediction markets, how much Polymarket volume they drive, and what it means for human traders.
Alex Copert
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