The 99th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027, and prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket will trade every major category in the months before. Oscar markets have grown into one of the largest non-sports, non-political categories: for the 2026 ceremony, combined volume across the two platforms passed $120 million, with Best Picture alone drawing more than $52 million, according to DeFi Rate's tracker.
They were also right. Going into the 2026 ceremony, the markets' favorites won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Actor. This guide covers the 2027 calendar, how Oscar markets settle, what drives the prices and how to trade them without being the last to hear the news.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Jan. 11 to 15, 2027 | Nominations voting |
| Jan. 21, 2027 | Nominations announced |
| Feb. 16, 2027 | Nominees luncheon |
| Feb. 25 to March 4, 2027 | Final voting |
| March 14, 2027 | 99th Academy Awards, Dolby Theatre, Hollywood |
Dates announced by the Academy and ABC in April 2026; the Academy says they are subject to change.
How Oscar Markets Work
Each category is a market with one contract per nominee. A Best Picture contract pays $1 if that film wins and $0 if it does not, so a price of 77 cents implies a 77% chance. Before nominations, the markets list likely contenders; after Jan. 21 they narrow to the official nominees.
Settlement follows the winners announced at the ceremony. Results are tallied by accountants at PwC and kept secret until the envelopes are opened, so there is no official information before the show. Markets close as the ceremony runs and settle once the Academy confirms the winners. Read each market's rules for edge cases, such as ties, which the Academy has had in the past, and what happens if a ceremony is postponed. Our guide to how prediction markets resolve covers settlement in general.
How Accurate Were the 2026 Markets?
On the day of the 98th Academy Awards, March 15, 2026, Kalshi priced One Battle After Another at 77% and Polymarket at 79% to win Best Picture, ahead of Sinners. It won, along with five other awards. Paul Thomas Anderson, priced above 90% for Best Director, won, as did Jessie Buckley for Best Actress, priced near 97%.
The most contested acting race was Best Actor, where Michael B. Jordan was at 61% on both platforms for Sinners. He won too. That is the more useful lesson: a 61% favorite loses about two times in five, so the market was right but far from certain. Our guide to how accurate prediction markets are explains what calibration means and why one good night proves little.
What Moves Oscar Prices
The precursors. Guild awards from producers, directors, actors and writers, along with the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs, fall between January and early March. Because many guild voters are also Academy members, these results move Oscar markets more than anything else. Best Picture favorites often lock in after the Producers Guild award.
The preferential ballot. Best Picture is decided by ranked-choice voting, so a film that is widely liked can beat one that is loved by some and disliked by others. This makes Best Picture less predictable than categories decided by a simple plurality.
Nominations morning. Jan. 21 resets every market. Films that miss nominations drop to zero, and nomination counts are read as a signal of support across the Academy's branches.
The voting window. Once final voting closes on March 4, no new information can change the result. Late price moves after that come from traders updating on the same public evidence, not from new votes.
How to Trade the Oscars
- Trade the precursor calendar. Prices move most in the hours after guild awards. Positions taken before a guild result are bets on that result as much as on the Oscar.
- Look for gaps between platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket can disagree by several points, especially in technical categories with thin books. Our arbitrage guide shows how to compare them after fees.
- Mind the spread in small categories. Best Picture and the acting awards are deep; short film or sound categories can have spreads of several cents. Use limit orders.
- Don't overpay for certainty. Buying a 97% favorite to win three cents risks 97. The 2026 favorites all won, but markets at that level are priced for an upset now and then.
- Ignore leaks you can't verify. Results are secret until the envelopes open. Rumors that a winner has leaked are almost always noise, and trading on genuinely confidential information would break the platforms' rules.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the 2027 Oscars?
The 99th Academy Awards are on Sunday, March 14, 2027, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. Nominations are announced on Jan. 21, 2027.
Can you bet on the Oscars legally in the US?
Most US states don't let sportsbooks take Oscar bets, but Kalshi and Polymarket US list Academy Awards markets as event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges. Check each platform's availability in your state.
How accurate are Oscar prediction markets?
They were right about every major category in 2026, including Best Actor, where the favorite was only 61%. Markets are well calibrated when favorites at 60% win about 60% of the time, so occasional upsets are expected.
Who won Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?
One Battle After Another, which was the prediction market favorite at 77% on Kalshi and 79% on Polymarket on the day of the ceremony.
When do Oscar markets settle?
When the winners are announced during the ceremony, once the platform confirms the official result. Markets on categories presented early in the show can settle before the broadcast ends.
How much is traded on the Oscars?
For the 2026 ceremony, combined volume across Kalshi and Polymarket passed $120 million, with more than $52 million on Best Picture, according to DeFi Rate.
