How Many Fed Rate Cuts
13 outcomes·3.5 pt gap
Poly
Kalshi0 (0 bps)▲0.495.5¢94.4¢1 (25 bps)▼0.41.5¢5.0¢3 (75 bps)0.4¢0.3¢2 (50 bps)0.4¢1.1¢Economics Odds
Fed rate decisions and macro indicators compared side by side on Polymarket and Kalshi.
PolyKalshi0 (0 bps)▲0.495.5¢94.4¢1 (25 bps)▼0.41.5¢5.0¢3 (75 bps)0.4¢0.3¢2 (50 bps)0.4¢1.1¢
Next Fed Rate Decision
5 outcomes
PolyKalshi25 bps increase▲5.055.5¢53.5¢
No change▼4.043.5¢44.5¢
50+ bps increase0.9¢1.5¢
25 bps decrease0.5¢1.0¢
Fed and macro odds on Polymarket and Kalshi
Rate decisions are the one market where both venues attract genuinely professional flow, and it shows: the two books usually agree within a couple of points on the next FOMC outcome. When they do drift, it is normally in the hours right after a data release, before both sides have repriced.
Note that the venues frame these contracts differently. Kalshi sells the next meeting as discrete outcomes — cut 25bps, hold, hike — while Polymarket words the same thing as bps increases and decreases. The rows here are matched across that wording so the prices sit side by side.
Frequently asked questions
Can you trade Fed rate decisions on prediction markets?
Yes. Both venues list each FOMC meeting outcome and the number of cuts in a calendar year. Kalshi runs a separate contract per scheduled meeting; the table above tracks the next one.
Why are Fed odds so similar on both venues?
Rate contracts attract traders who price the same event in interest rate futures, so disagreements get arbitraged out quickly. Gaps usually show up only in the hours after a data release.
Compare every tracked market on the Polymarket vs Kalshi odds page, or read our reviews of Polymarket and Kalshi before funding an account.
