New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani is the favorite to be TIME's Person of the Year for 2026, according to prediction markets. On Oct. 27, Polymarket priced him at about 27% and Kalshi at about 30%, ahead of Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and Pope Leo XIV. No one is above one in three, which makes this one of the more open races in years.
TIME usually names its Person of the Year in early or mid-December. Until then the market moves on news, on TIME's own coverage and on the long history of the magazine's picks. This guide covers the current odds, how each platform settles the market, what past winners say about TIME's choices and how to approach a market where groups and ideas can win as well as people.
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 26.5% | 29.5% |
| Mark Carney | 16.5% | 13.5% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| Donald Trump | 8.5% | 9.5% |
| Dario Amodei | 6.8% | 6.5% |
| Marco Rubio | 6.4% | 5.5% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Elon Musk | 6.0% | 6.0% |
Prices on Oct. 27, 2026, from PredictReport's odds tracker. Kalshi prices are midpoints between bid and ask.
Reading the Current Odds
The prices add up to more than any single favorite, and that is the point: traders see a crowded field. Mamdani's lead reflects his first year as mayor of the country's largest city, which began on Jan. 1, 2026. Carney and Pope Leo XIV are the international options. Trump, Person of the Year in 2024, sits under 10% because TIME rarely gives the title to the same person twice in quick succession, though it has done so before.
Dario Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic, is the technology candidate. His company filed publicly for an IPO in October 2026, and TIME's 2025 pick, "the Architects of AI," shows the magazine's interest in the subject. Anthropic's IPO has its own prediction markets, which we cover in our guide to AI prediction markets.
The market is thin. Polymarket's event had traded about $165,000 by late October, a fraction of what political markets draw, so a single large order can move a price several points. Check both platforms before trading; when they disagree, our arbitrage guide explains how to compare them after fees.
How the Markets Settle
The two platforms write the rules differently, and the difference matters in years when TIME picks a group or an idea.
Polymarket resolves an option to Yes if TIME explicitly names it Person of the Year. If several people are named, all of them count. If TIME picks a concept or group, a person counts only if they are explicitly named or are associated with the pick and appear on an official Person of the Year cover. Polymarket's own example: when the 2025 choice was "the Architects of AI," an option for Sam Altman would have resolved Yes because he is part of that group and appeared on a cover. A thing such as ChatGPT would not count as a person.
Kalshi pays out for people explicitly named or pictured on a relevant cover if they belong to a winning group, and says it will read vague picks in their simplest reasonable sense. Its rules use past examples: when TIME named "The Guardians" in 2018, journalists pictured on the covers would have counted. Kalshi's market closes on Jan. 1, 2027.
Read the full rules for any option before trading it. Our guide to how prediction markets resolve covers settlement in general.
What TIME's History Says
TIME's picks are not a popularity contest. The magazine names whoever most shaped the year's news, for better or worse. Recent choices:
| Year | Person of the Year |
|---|---|
| 2025 | The Architects of AI |
| 2024 | Donald Trump |
| 2023 | Taylor Swift |
| 2022 | Volodymyr Zelensky and the spirit of Ukraine |
| 2021 | Elon Musk |
| 2020 | Joe Biden and Kamala Harris |
| 2019 | Greta Thunberg |
Three patterns stand out. Groups and pairs win often, which is why the settlement rules on groups matter. Politicians and heads of state dominate in election and war years. And cultural figures win in years without a single defining political story. In 2026, with US midterms and several international crises, a political pick looks more likely than a cultural one, which is consistent with the current prices.
How to Approach the Market
- Price the group scenario. If you think TIME will pick a group, such as a movement or a set of leaders, look for options that would be pictured on the covers rather than the most famous single name.
- Watch the midterms. The Nov. 3 elections could raise or lower the profile of US political candidates in the field.
- Expect late moves. The announcement usually comes in early or mid-December, and prices can jump in the final days as reporting about the pick surfaces.
- Size small. Thin books mean wide spreads; use limit orders rather than crossing the spread.
Live prices for this market are on our TIME Person of the Year odds page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of New York City, at about 27% on Polymarket and 30% on Kalshi on Oct. 27, 2026. Mark Carney and Pope Leo XIV follow at around 14% to 18%.
When is TIME Person of the Year 2026 announced?
TIME has not announced a date. The pick is usually revealed in early or mid-December; the 2025 choice was announced on Dec. 11, 2025.
Who was TIME Person of the Year 2025?
"The Architects of AI," a group covering the leaders behind artificial intelligence, announced on Dec. 11, 2025.
Can a group or an idea win the prediction market?
Yes, if TIME picks one. Both platforms count people who are explicitly named or who are part of a winning group and appear on an official cover, and Kalshi reads vague picks in their simplest reasonable sense. Check each option's rules.
Where can I trade TIME Person of the Year?
Both Polymarket and Kalshi list the market. Kalshi's version closes on Jan. 1, 2027.
How accurate are these markets?
Awards and honors markets are often right about the favorite, but TIME's choice is made by its editors and can surprise. With no candidate above about 30%, the market itself expects a good chance that the favorite does not win.
