UEFA Champions League Winner: Polymarket vs Kalshi

36 outcomes on both venues·updated Sep 19, 08:40 AM UTC

Barcelona leads at 19.5¢ on Polymarket against 23.5¢ on Kalshi. 1 outcome currently differ by 3 points or more between the two venues — the kind of gap that can survive fees and taxes.

Trade on Polymarket Kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Outcome

Poly

KalshiDiff

Barcelona19.5¢23.5¢-4.0

Bayern Munich14.5¢13.5¢+1.0

Arsenal14.5¢14.5¢0.0

Real Madrid12.5¢13.5¢-1.0

Paris Saint-Germain12.5¢12.5¢0.0

Manchester City8.5¢9.5¢-1.0

Liverpool4.5¢4.5¢0.0

Inter Milan2.8¢2.5¢+0.3

Manchester United2.5¢1.5¢+1.1

Atlético Madrid1.7¢1.5¢+0.1

Borussia Dortmund1.4¢1.5¢-0.1

Como1.1¢1.5¢-0.3

Aston Villa1.1¢1.5¢-0.5

Real Betis0.7¢1.0¢—

Roma0.7¢1.0¢—

Napoli0.5¢1.0¢—

Sporting CP0.4¢1.0¢—

VfB Stuttgart0.4¢1.0¢—

RB Leipzig0.4¢1.0¢—

Villarreal0.4¢1.0¢—

Porto0.4¢1.0¢—

Lens0.4¢1.0¢—

Fenerbahçe0.3¢1.0¢—

Lille0.3¢1.0¢—

Galatasaray0.3¢1.0¢—

Bodø/Glimt0.3¢1.0¢—

Slovan Bratislava0.1¢1.0¢—

Slavia Prague0.1¢1.0¢—

Shakhtar Donetsk0.1¢1.0¢—

AEK Athens0.1¢1.0¢—

PSV Eindhoven0.1¢1.0¢—

Viking0.1¢1.0¢—

Sabah0.1¢1.0¢—

Feyenoord0.1¢1.0¢—

LASK0.1¢1.0¢—

Club Brugge0.1¢1.0¢—

Polymarket shows the last traded price; Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint. Where the Kalshi book is too wide to compare, the raw bid–ask range is shown instead and no difference is reported. Prices move continuously — confirm on the venue before trading.

Where to trade this

Polymarket review

USDC settlement, taker fees 0.75–1.80%, no interest on balances.

Kalshi review

CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, about 4% APY on idle cash.

Deciding between them? Read the full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison, or see the best prediction market apps.

UEFA Champions League Winner odds explained

The table above prices UEFA Champions League Winner on Polymarket and Kalshi at the same moment. Each figure is what one contract costs in cents, so 52.0¢ means the market implies a 52% chance. Contracts settle at $1, which makes the price and the implied probability the same number.

The two venues run separate order books, so the same outcome can sit several points apart. Where the gap reaches three points it is worth a look: that is roughly what a difference needs to be to survive Polymarket's 0.75–1.80% taker fee and Kalshi's per-contract charge. Our prediction market arbitrage guide covers how to trade a gap without getting caught with one leg filled.

Frequently asked questions

Where can I get the best odds on UEFA Champions League Winner?

The table above prices UEFA Champions League Winner on both venues, refreshed every ten minutes, with the cheaper side highlighted for each outcome. It is often not the same venue across the whole board.

Is there an arbitrage opportunity on UEFA Champions League Winner?

Differences of three points or more are flagged above — roughly what a gap needs to survive fees on both sides. Smaller ones are shown but rarely worth acting on; the arbitrage guide covers the execution risk.

Who is favourite in UEFA Champions League Winner?

Barcelona carries the highest implied probability on Polymarket right now. The ranking reflects the most recent sync and moves with the market.

Do I owe tax on profits from this market?

Yes. Kalshi issues a 1099-MISC and Polymarket issues nothing, and there is no IRS guidance specific to prediction markets — see the tax guide.

More sports odds, or every market we track on the Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison. New to this? Start with how prediction markets work and the best prediction market apps.