| Predict.fun | |
|---|---|
| Founded | Launched December 2025 |
| Headquarters | Operated by PDF Labs Limited, British Virgin Islands |
| Parent company / Key backer | YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs) |
| Blockchain | BNB Chain (BNB Smart Chain) |
| Regulation | Not licensed by the CFTC; terms governed by British Virgin Islands law |
| Settlement currency | USDT |
| US availability | Not available — US persons are excluded by the terms |
| International availability | Most countries, excluding the US, UK, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Australia, Belgium, Taiwan and sanctioned regions |
| Minimum deposit | Minimum order of 1 USDT |
| Trading fees | Makers pay nothing; takers pay 0.018% to 2% depending on price |
| Deposit methods | USDT or USDC from multiple chains; access through Trust Wallet and Binance Wallet |
| Mobile app | Through Trust Wallet and Binance Wallet; web app |
| Cumulative volume | More than $1.8 billion by the end of March 2026 |
| Total users | About 125,000 by spring 2026, per Trust Wallet |
| Total funding / Valuation | Strategic round announced March 31, 2026; amount not publicly disclosed |
| Key investors | YZi Labs, Susquehanna Crypto |
| Native token | None; a points programme runs, with no token announced |
Predict.fun is the prediction market of the BNB Chain ecosystem, and its pitch fits in one line: your money earns yield while your bet waits to resolve. Collateral posted on Predict.fun is routed into Venus Protocol, BNB Chain's main lending market, so an open position keeps earning interest until the market settles. Nobody else in the category's top tier does that on the position itself — Kalshi pays interest on idle cash, and Polymarket pays nothing at all.
That is the headline. The rest of this Predict.fun review covers what sits underneath it: how the platform works, what it costs now that taker fees apply, what you can trade, who stands behind it, and the part that matters most for many of our readers — it is closed to the United States and not licensed by any US regulator.
What Is Predict.fun?
Predict.fun is a decentralised prediction market on BNB Chain where you buy and sell YES and NO shares on real-world events, settled in the stablecoin USDT. It launched in December 2025 and is operated by PDF Labs Limited, a company whose terms of service are governed by British Virgin Islands law. If the mechanics of event contracts are new to you, our guide to how prediction markets work covers them from the start.
The founder goes by dingaling (@dingalingts on X). Trust Wallet's guide to the platform describes him as a former head of research at Binance and the founder of PancakeSwap, BNB Chain's largest decentralised exchange. YZi Labs — the investment firm formerly known as Binance Labs, associated with Binance founder Changpeng Zhao — backed the project from its start through its EASY Residency programme. On March 31, 2026, Predict.fun announced a strategic round led by YZi Labs and Susquehanna Crypto, the digital-asset arm of the trading firm Susquehanna. The size of the round has not been publicly disclosed.
Growth has been fast for a platform that did not exist a year ago. The company said it had processed more than $1.8 billion in cumulative volume when it announced its funding round, around four months after launch. In April 2026, Binance added a prediction markets feature to Binance Wallet that connects directly to Predict.fun, and Trust Wallet built it into its own Predictions tab. Those two integrations put the platform in front of a very large crypto-native audience without anyone needing to find it first.
What makes it different, stated plainly: yield on open positions, deep integration with the Binance ecosystem, and low-friction onboarding for people who already hold stablecoins. What it lacks: a US licence, the order-book depth of Polymarket and Kalshi, and the track record that comes with years of operation. The rest of this review works through each of those.
How Does Predict.fun Work?
The Basics
Every market on Predict.fun asks a yes-or-no question, or a set of them for multi-outcome events. Each share pays 1 USDT if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so the price of a share is the market's probability. Buy YES at 40¢, the event happens, and you receive $1 — a profit of 60¢ per share. If it does not happen, the 40¢ is lost.
Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and move as traders buy and sell. You can sell a position at any time the market is open, which makes a share closer to a tradeable asset than a placed bet; our guide to cashing out early explains when that is worth doing.
The distinctive part is what happens to your collateral while you wait. Predict.fun routes it through Venus Protocol, where it earns lending yield until the market resolves. According to the platform, you keep that yield whether your prediction wins or loses: a winning position receives the full $1 per share plus accrued yield, and a losing one loses its principal but keeps the yield earned while it was open.
Placing a Trade
Trading happens through an order book. You choose a market and an outcome, choose to buy or sell, and either take the best available price or post a limit order at your own price. The minimum order is 1 USDT.
Posting limit orders matters more here than on some venues, because Predict.fun charges takers and not makers. A resting order that someone else fills pays no fee at all; our guide to limit orders explains how to use them well.
Order Types
Predict.fun supports market orders, which fill immediately against the book, and limit orders, which rest until filled or cancelled. It also lists what it calls Bond Markets: NO shares on near-certain events that trade at 98–99¢. Buying one is closer to buying a short-term bond than placing a bet — a small, likely return — and on Predict.fun it stacks on top of the Venus yield on the same collateral. The risk is the rare case where the near-certain event does not go as expected, in which case the whole stake is lost.
Deposits
The platform accepts USDT or USDC from multiple chains and converts cross-chain deposits into its trading balance, with a stated 0.1% slippage on cross-chain deposits. It advertises sponsored gas, so trading does not require holding BNB for transaction fees. Sign-up can use email, Google or X, with a smart wallet created automatically, and the terms state that you keep custody of your wallet.
For someone new to crypto, the practical route is to buy USDT or USDC on a regulated exchange, send it to the Predict.fun wallet address shown in the app, and wait for it to arrive. If you use Binance Wallet or Trust Wallet already, the prediction market sits inside the wallet you have. The process is similar in spirit to funding Polymarket, which our Polymarket deposit guide walks through.
What We Don't Know Yet
Three things have not been publicly disclosed. The yield rate is variable and depends on Venus's lending market, so there is no fixed figure to quote. The size of the March 2026 funding round has not been published. And there is no announced plan for a token: the platform runs a points programme, but its terms state that points have no monetary value and confer no rights.
What Markets Can You Trade on Predict.fun?
Sports
Predict.fun lists sports markets, and it leaned into the 2026 World Cup with dedicated campaigns. Coverage is growing but the books are thinner than on the market leaders. For sports specifically, Kalshi remains the deepest venue for US-regulated trading, and our ranking of the best prediction markets for sports betting compares the options.
Politics and Elections
Political markets are available, including multi-outcome markets on elections and nominations. Liquidity is a fraction of what the same questions attract on Polymarket, which dominates global political trading. For a sense of how deep those markets run elsewhere, see our 2028 Republican nominee odds, where Polymarket alone has traded about $700 million.
Crypto and Finance
Crypto is where Predict.fun's audience is most at home, and its catalogue reflects that: token-price markets, and markets on crypto-industry events such as whether particular projects will launch tokens. It even lists a market on when Polymarket will release its own token. These are the markets where its user base is most likely to have an edge, and where its books are most active.
Culture, Tech, and Everything Else
The platform also lists culture and trending-topic markets. As with most venues outside the top two, the long tail is where liquidity is thinnest, so check the spread before trading anything obscure. Our guide to prediction market liquidity explains how to read a thin book.
Predict.fun Fees: What Do You Actually Pay?
Trading Fees
Predict.fun launched with an emphasis on low costs, and makers still pay nothing. Takers now pay a fee that depends on the share price. The formula in its documentation is a base fee of 2% multiplied by the lower of the price and one minus the price, multiplied by the number of shares, with a 10% discount applied when a discount is active. That puts the taker fee between 0.018% and 2%.
The effect is that fees peak on trades near 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. A $100 purchase at 50¢ buys 200 shares and costs $2.00 in fees, or $1.80 with the discount. A $100 purchase at 80¢ costs $0.50. A $100 purchase of a near-certain outcome at 97¢ costs about $0.06. Because the fee depends on the lower of the two prices, buying favourites is cheap and buying long shots costs the full rate on every dollar.
Deposit and Withdrawal Fees
Predict.fun states that it charges no platform fees on deposits and withdrawals, with 0.1% slippage on cross-chain deposits. Gas is sponsored on the platform. External costs still apply when you buy stablecoins on an exchange or move them between chains — the same trade-off that comes with any crypto-settled venue.
Yield on Open Positions
This is the feature that sets Predict.fun apart. Collateral in open positions earns Venus Protocol's lending yield until the market resolves. The rate is variable and not guaranteed. For illustration only, at a 4% annual rate, $1,000 held in positions for three months would earn about $10. That will not decide whether a trade is good, but on long-dated positions it offsets part of the cost of tying up capital, which is a real weakness of prediction markets generally.
How the Fees Compare
| Fee type | Predict.fun | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taker fee | 0.018%–2%, highest near 50¢ | 0.75%–1.80% by category | 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price) |
| Maker fee | None | None, with rebates on some markets | Charged to takers on most markets |
| $100 at 50¢ | $2.00 ($1.80 with discount) | $0.75–$1.80 | About $3.50 |
| Deposits and withdrawals | No platform fee; 0.1% cross-chain slippage | Gas and off-ramp costs | Free by bank transfer |
| Yield | Venus lending yield on open positions | None | About 4% APY on idle cash |
For deeper detail on the two market leaders, see our Polymarket fees explainer and Kalshi fees explainer. Our market fee calculator runs Kalshi's and Polymarket's formulas for any trade.
Predict.fun User Experience and Interface
The web interface is built for crypto users who want speed: markets load quickly, the order ticket is compact, and positions and yield are visible in one place. Onboarding is easier than on most crypto-settled venues, because email, Google and X logins create a smart wallet automatically and gas is sponsored.
On mobile, there is no need for a dedicated app if you already use Binance Wallet or Trust Wallet, since both surface Predict.fun directly. That is a genuine distribution advantage: the product sits inside wallets that millions of people already open daily, the same exchange-ecosystem strategy Crypto.com pursues with OG. There is no demo account.
The criticism is familiar from younger venues. Books outside the headline markets are thin, so spreads can be wide. The yield rate is not displayed as a fixed number, which makes it harder to reason about than Kalshi's stated interest rate. And customer support runs through community and online channels rather than the kind of regulated complaints process a US exchange must maintain.
Predict.fun's Regulatory Position
Predict.fun is not licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and does not offer its contracts to US persons. Its terms of service exclude anyone who resides in, is located in or is incorporated in the United States, and they also exclude the United Kingdom, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Australia, Belgium and Taiwan, along with sanctioned countries and regions. Using a VPN or other anonymising tool to get around those restrictions breaks the terms.
The operator, PDF Labs Limited, sits under British Virgin Islands law, and disputes go to mandatory arbitration in the BVI, with class actions waived. Identity verification is not required to start trading, but the terms allow the company to request information and to restrict access if it is not provided. Our guide to prediction market KYC explains how that compares with regulated venues.
The contrast with the US market leaders is stark. Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market, and Polymarket acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange to serve US users. Predict.fun operates entirely outside that framework. For US readers, that settles the question: it is not an option. Our guide to whether prediction markets are legal in the US covers the regulated alternatives, and our analysis of how the CFTC regulates prediction markets explains why the licence matters.
Predict.fun's Growth in Numbers
The platform's own figures and those cited by its partners describe a steep ramp. Predict.fun said it had processed more than $1.8 billion in cumulative volume when it announced its funding round at the end of March 2026. Trust Wallet cited more than $1.7 billion in volume, about 125,000 users and 3.7 million transactions around the same period.
Treat those numbers with the usual caution. They are self-reported or partner-reported, cumulative volume counts both sides of activity differently across venues, and on-chain metrics can double-count. For context, the whole category traded about $63.5 billion in 2025, and Polymarket and Kalshi together account for roughly 97.5% of volume. Predict.fun is a meaningful regional player, not a challenger to the top two. Our Dune Analytics review explains how to verify on-chain activity independently.
Predict.fun vs. Established Platforms
| Predict.fun | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best for | BNB Chain users who want yield on positions | Deepest global liquidity | Regulated US trading in dollars |
| Regulation | Not CFTC-licensed; BVI terms | International platform plus CFTC-licensed US exchange | CFTC-designated contract market |
| Settlement | USDT on BNB Chain | USDC on Polygon | US dollars |
| Deposits | USDT/USDC from multiple chains | USDC; card and exchange on-ramps | Bank transfer, card and more |
| Trading fees | Takers 0.018%–2%; makers free | Takers 0.75%–1.80%; makers free | About 1.75¢ per contract at 50¢ |
| Yield/interest | Venus yield on open positions | None | About 4% on idle cash |
| Liquidity depth | Moderate, concentrated in crypto markets | Deepest in the category | Deep, especially in sports |
| Sports coverage | Growing | Broad | Broadest for US sports |
| Politics coverage | Available, thinner | Deepest global political books | Broad US election coverage |
| Mobile app | Via Binance Wallet and Trust Wallet | Yes | Yes |
| Onboarding difficulty | Low for crypto users | Moderate | Low |
The table flatters Predict.fun on two rows: yield and onboarding. Both are real advantages, and for someone already living in the Binance ecosystem they are significant. On everything that decides whether a trade gets a good price — depth, spread, market breadth — the two leaders are well ahead, and for US readers Predict.fun is not available at all. Our Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison covers the choice most US traders actually face, and our ranking of the best prediction market apps places Predict.fun in the wider field.
Is Predict.fun Safe and Legit?
Predict.fun is a real, operating platform with credible backers — YZi Labs and Susquehanna Crypto — and integrations with Binance Wallet and Trust Wallet. It is not a scam. It is also an unregulated, offshore, crypto-native venue, and that brings a specific set of risks.
You can lose money on any prediction market, and most retail traders do over time. On Predict.fun, you also carry smart contract risk — its own terms describe the technology as experimental — along with the risk of the Venus lending market that generates the yield, and the risk of the USDT stablecoin itself. Resolution relies on UMA's Optimistic Oracle with a dispute window, a system with a mostly good record and some contested outcomes; our explainer on how prediction markets resolve covers how it works. There is no regulator to escalate a complaint to.
Profits are taxable in most jurisdictions whether or not a platform reports them, and Predict.fun issues no tax forms. Keep your own records; our prediction market tax guide explains the US treatments, and the principles carry over to other countries.
Who Is Predict.fun Best For?
Great fit:
- Crypto traders outside restricted countries who already hold USDT on BNB Chain and want to trade events without moving funds elsewhere.
- Binance Wallet and Trust Wallet users who want prediction markets inside the wallet they already use.
- Traders holding long-dated positions, where yield on collateral offsets some of the cost of waiting months for resolution.
- Patient limit-order traders, since makers pay no fee at all.
- Traders with an edge in crypto-industry events, where Predict.fun's catalogue and audience are strongest.
- Yield-focused users interested in Bond Markets, where near-certain NO shares add a small return on top of lending yield.
Not ideal for:
- Anyone in the United States, who is excluded by the terms; use Kalshi or the regulated Polymarket product instead.
- Traders who need deep books for large orders, who will find better prices on Polymarket.
- Sports bettors looking for the widest US sports coverage, who are better served by Kalshi or a regulated sportsbook-run venue such as DraftKings Predictions.
- Anyone who wants regulatory protection and a formal complaints process, which an offshore venue cannot offer.
- Beginners with no crypto experience, who will find a dollar-settled venue easier; our beginner's walkthrough covers the first steps.
Promotions and Incentives
Predict.fun runs a points programme that rewards trading activity, with campaigns tied to events such as the 2026 World Cup. Many users treat points as a proxy for a possible future token distribution, but no token has been announced, and the terms state that points carry no monetary value. Trade for the markets, not for the points. Our overview of prediction market promo codes and bonuses covers what other platforms offer new users.
Final Verdict: 3.3 / 5
Predict.fun earns its 3.3 on a genuinely new idea executed well: yield on open positions, zero maker fees, and onboarding that makes a prediction market as easy to reach as a wallet tab. The Binance ecosystem behind it gives it distribution that most young venues can only envy.
The gap to the top of the scale comes from what it is not. It is not regulated, it is closed to the United States and several other large markets, its books are far thinner than Polymarket's or Kalshi's outside a handful of markets, and its taker fee now reaches 2% near even odds. Its track record is measured in months.
If you are outside the restricted countries, already use BNB Chain, and want your collateral working while you wait, Predict.fun is worth trying with a modest amount. If you are in the United States, or you need depth and regulatory protection, it is not the right venue. For the full field ranked side by side, see our best prediction market apps.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Predict.fun?
A decentralised prediction market on BNB Chain, launched in December 2025, where you trade YES and NO shares on real-world events in USDT. Its distinctive feature is that collateral in open positions earns yield through Venus Protocol.
Is Predict.fun legal in the US?
No. Predict.fun is not licensed by the CFTC, and its terms exclude US persons. US traders should use a regulated venue; see our legal guide.
What are Predict.fun's fees?
Makers pay nothing. Takers pay between 0.018% and 2% depending on the share price, calculated as 2% of the lower of the price and one minus the price, with a 10% discount when active. A $100 taker trade at 50¢ costs about $2.
How does Predict.fun's yield work?
Collateral in open positions is routed into Venus Protocol, BNB Chain's lending market, and earns a variable rate until the market resolves. According to the platform, you keep the yield whether your prediction wins or loses.
How does Predict.fun compare to Polymarket and Kalshi?
It offers yield on positions and free maker orders, but far thinner liquidity and no US licence. Polymarket has the deepest books and Kalshi is the regulated US option; see Polymarket vs Kalshi.
Who founded Predict.fun?
A founder known as dingaling, described by Trust Wallet as a former head of research at Binance and the founder of PancakeSwap. YZi Labs backed it from launch, and a strategic round with YZi Labs and Susquehanna Crypto was announced in March 2026.
Does Predict.fun have a token?
No token has been announced. The platform runs a points programme, and its terms state that points have no monetary value.
Do I have to pay taxes on Predict.fun profits?
In most countries, yes, even though Predict.fun issues no tax forms. Keep your own records of every trade; our prediction market tax guide explains the US treatments.
