TIME Person of the Year: Polymarket vs Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani leads at 28.5¢ on Polymarket against 28.5¢ on Kalshi. The two venues agree closely on this market right now: no outcome differs by 3 points or more.
Poly
KalshiDiff
Zohran Mamdani28.5¢28.5¢0.0Mark Carney▼0.517.0¢17.5¢-0.5Pope Leo XIV9.5¢9.5¢0.0Benjamin Netanyahu8.0¢6.5¢+1.5Donald Trump7.5¢6.5¢+1.0James Talarico▲0.36.7¢6.0¢+0.7Dario Amodei▼0.66.3¢8.5¢-2.1Victor Glover▼0.54.9¢4.0¢+0.9Elon Musk4.5¢6.0¢-1.5Reid Wiseman▼0.14.5¢5.0¢-0.6Bad Bunny▼0.14.3¢4.0¢+0.3Jeremy Hansen▼0.34.0¢4.0¢0.0Mojtaba Khamenei4.0¢4.0¢-0.1Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf3.9¢4.5¢-0.7Shehbaz Sharif▼0.13.6¢3.5¢+0.1Marco Rubio▼0.53.5¢2.5¢+1.0Taylor Swift3.4¢3.0¢+0.4Sam Altman▼0.33.4¢5.5¢-2.1Péter Magyar3.4¢2.5¢+0.8Alysa Liu3.2¢2.5¢+0.7ChatGPT3.2¢3.5¢-0.3Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez2.6¢5.5¢-2.9Bernie Sanders2.6¢1.5¢+1.1Christina Koch▼0.12.1¢5.0¢-2.9Jerome Powell2.1¢2.0¢+0.1Polymarket shows the last traded price; Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint. Where the Kalshi book is too wide to compare, the raw bid–ask range is shown instead and no difference is reported. Prices move continuously — confirm on the venue before trading.
Where to trade this
Polymarket review
USDC settlement, taker fees 0.75–1.80%, no interest on balances.
Kalshi review
CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, about 4% APY on idle cash.
Deciding between them? Read the full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison, or see the best prediction market apps.
TIME Person of the Year odds explained
The table above prices TIME Person of the Year on Polymarket and Kalshi at the same moment. Each figure is what one contract costs in cents, so 52.0¢ means the market implies a 52% chance. Contracts settle at $1, which makes the price and the implied probability the same number.
The two venues run separate order books, so the same outcome can sit several points apart. Where the gap reaches three points it is worth a look: that is roughly what a difference needs to be to survive Polymarket's 0.75–1.80% taker fee and Kalshi's per-contract charge. Our prediction market arbitrage guide covers how to trade a gap without getting caught with one leg filled.
Frequently asked questions
Where can I get the best odds on TIME Person of the Year?
The table above prices TIME Person of the Year on both venues, refreshed every ten minutes, with the cheaper side highlighted for each outcome. It is often not the same venue across the whole board.
Is there an arbitrage opportunity on TIME Person of the Year?
Differences of three points or more are flagged above — roughly what a gap needs to survive fees on both sides. Smaller ones are shown but rarely worth acting on; the arbitrage guide covers the execution risk.
Who is favourite in TIME Person of the Year?
Zohran Mamdani carries the highest implied probability on Polymarket right now. The ranking reflects the most recent sync and moves with the market.
Do I owe tax on profits from this market?
Yes. Kalshi issues a 1099-MISC and Polymarket issues nothing, and there is no IRS guidance specific to prediction markets — see the tax guide.
More culture odds, or every market we track on the Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison. New to this? Start with how prediction markets work and the best prediction market apps.