How Prediction Markets Settle Election Night 2026

The midterm elections on Nov. 3, 2026 will be the biggest test yet for election contracts on regulated US exchanges. Prices will swing as counties report, but the more important question for anyone holding a position is when and how each market pays out. Kalshi and Polymarket write their rules differently, and a close race, a recount or an independent winner can leave the two platforms on different timetables.

This guide explains how each platform settles House, Senate and race markets, what happens in the edge cases, and how to trade election night without getting caught by the rules. Going in, the markets favor Democrats to win both chambers.

Market (Oct. 27, 2026)	Polymarket	Kalshi
Democrats win the House	91.5%	90.8%
Democrats win the Senate	65.5%	64.5%
Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D)	68.5%	68.5%
Ohio Senate special: Sherrod Brown (D)	70.5%	67.5%
Texas Senate: James Talarico (D)	68.5%	65.5%
Maine Senate: Troy Jackson (D)	62.0%	61.5%
Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson (R)	58.5%	58.5%

Prices from PredictReport's odds tracker; Kalshi prices are midpoints.

How Kalshi Settles Chamber Control

Kalshi's House and Senate markets can settle early "based on a consensus of media calls" projecting which party controls the chamber. If the media do not agree, the fallback is formal: for the House, the party of the Speaker of the House on Feb. 1, 2027; for the Senate, the party of the Senate's president pro tempore on the same date. The markets close on Feb. 1, 2027 at the latest.

In practice, that means a clear result can pay out within days of the election once major news organizations have made matching projections. A close result can leave money tied up until the new Congress organizes in January.

How Polymarket Settles Chamber Control

Polymarket's House market resolves to the party that wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats in the 2026 election. If no party wins a majority, control goes to the party of the first Speaker elected by the new Congress. The rules then set out how seats are counted:

Runoffs count. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result decides it.
Seats follow the election. A member-elect who switches parties or leaves before Congress organizes still counts for the party they were elected under.
Independents count with their caucus. Members elected as independents who caucus, or announce they will caucus, with a party count for that party. If that is unclear on election day, the market can stay open until it is settled.

Polymarket's international platform settles through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed, can be disputed during a challenge window, and disputed results go to a vote of UMA token holders. An uncontested result settles quickly; a contested one can take days. Our guide to how prediction markets resolve explains the process.

The Edge Cases That Decide Close Races

Media calls versus certification. A news network's projection is not an official result. Kalshi's chamber markets can settle on a consensus of calls; markets that require certified results wait for states to certify, which takes weeks in some states.

Recounts. Automatic recounts are triggered by close margins in many states. A race in recount will not settle on a media call, and its market can stay open for weeks.

Runoffs. States that require runoffs, such as Georgia, can push a Senate seat past election night. If chamber control depends on a runoff, both platforms will wait for it.

Independents. An independent who has not said which party they will caucus with can delay chamber control markets, as Polymarket's rules anticipate.

Ties in the Senate. A 50-50 Senate is organized by the party of the vice president, who breaks ties. Kalshi's fallback looks at the party of the president pro tempore, the senior senator of the majority party, while other markets may count seats; read how each defines control.

How to Trade Election Night

Read the rules for every race you trade. Two markets with the same title can settle on different evidence and on different days.
Expect fast, thin markets. Prices move in seconds as results arrive, and spreads widen. Use limit orders instead of market orders.
Know the reporting order. States count at different speeds, and mail ballots are counted later in some states than others. Early leads can reverse; markets price that in, but not always correctly.
Watch the gap between platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket often disagree briefly on election night. Our arbitrage guide explains how to compare them after fees and settlement timing.
Plan for locked-up capital. A market that settles in February ties up your money for three months.
Remember the law. Election contracts face challenges in some states, and trading on non-public information about results is prohibited.

Our 2026 midterm odds and guide to trading the midterms cover the races in more depth, and live prices are on our House control odds page.

Frequently Asked Questions

When do midterm election markets pay out?

It depends on the platform and the rules. Kalshi's House and Senate markets can settle once there is a consensus of media calls; otherwise they settle on the party of the Speaker (House) or the president pro tempore (Senate) on Feb. 1, 2027. Polymarket's markets settle when the outcome under its rules is clear and the result is not disputed.

Does a news network's call settle a Kalshi market?

Kalshi's chamber control markets can settle early on a consensus of media calls, not a single network's projection. Individual race markets have their own rules.

What happens if a race goes to a recount?

The market stays open until the outcome required by its rules is known. A recount can delay settlement by weeks.

How do prediction markets handle independents?

Polymarket counts independents with the party they caucus with or announce they will caucus with, and can keep a market open until that is clear. Kalshi's chamber markets fall back on the party of the House Speaker or the Senate's president pro tempore.