How Prediction Markets Settle Election Night 2026
How Kalshi and Polymarket settle the 2026 midterms: media calls vs the Speaker vote, recounts, runoffs, independents, current House and Senate odds and tips.
Miriam Velde
Regulation & Policy
Miriam Velde
The regulation byline: the CFTC, the states' fight over sports contracts, the court cases, and how prediction market profits are taxed.
11 articles
About Miriam
Miriam Velde is the byline on PredictReport's regulation, litigation and tax coverage. Prediction markets sit on a contested line between federally regulated derivatives and state-regulated gambling, and where that line falls decides what can be traded, by whom and from which state.
The coverage follows it to the source documents: CFTC orders and rule proposals, the complaints and rulings in the state cases, the bills in Congress. The aim is to explain what each development changes for someone deciding whether to trade, and what it does not.
Tax articles set out the treatments filers actually use while the IRS has published no guidance specific to prediction markets. None of it is legal or tax advice; anyone with a real decision to make should speak to a qualified professional.
Latest from Miriam
11 totalSupreme Court and Prediction Markets: The Case Explained
The Supreme Court prediction markets case explained: New Jersey's petition against Kalshi, the circuit split, the timeline and what a ruling would change.
Miriam Velde
How the CFTC Regulates Prediction Markets
How the CFTC regulates prediction markets: designated contract markets, self-certification, the Kalshi election case and the state fight over sports contracts.
Miriam Velde
Prediction Market KYC: Why Platforms Verify ID
Prediction market KYC explained: what Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig and Robinhood ask for, why regulated venues verify identity, and how to fix stalled checks.
Miriam Velde
Is Kalshi Legit and Safe? 2026 Review
Is Kalshi legit? A CFTC-regulated exchange with segregated funds and dollar settlement. What its licence protects, what it does not, and the risks that remain.
Miriam Velde
Are Prediction Markets Gambling?
Are prediction markets gambling? Legally they are CFTC-regulated derivatives, but several states disagree. What each side argues and where the courts stand.
Miriam Velde
How Prediction Markets Resolve and Settle
How Polymarket and Kalshi resolve contracts, why two venues can settle the same event differently, and how to read a rulebook before you trade.
Miriam Velde
Where Is Polymarket Legal in 2026? The Real Answer
Polymarket is legal in the US again through its CFTC-regulated US app, while the global site restricts the UK, France, Australia and others. The full 2026 map.
Miriam Velde
Prediction Markets Legal States: The 2026 State-by-State Map
See which US states allow Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026, which have restricted or banned them, and why the legal picture keeps shifting state by state.
Miriam Velde
Prediction Market Insider Trading Regulation 2026
Prediction market insider trading in 2026: the Maduro and Google charges, new Kalshi and Polymarket rules, the Schiff-Curtis bill, CFTC rules and court fights.
Miriam Velde
How Prediction Market Winnings Are Taxed in 2026: What the IRS Hasn't Told You
How prediction market winnings are taxed in 2026: the three treatments filers use, what Kalshi and Polymarket report, and how to file with no IRS guidance.
Miriam Velde