
How the CFTC Regulates Prediction Markets
How the CFTC regulates prediction markets: designated contract markets, self-certification, the Kalshi election case and the state fight over sports contracts.
Regulation & Policy
The regulation byline: the CFTC, the states' fight over sports contracts, the court cases, and how prediction market profits are taxed.
Miriam Velde is the byline on PredictReport's regulation, litigation and tax coverage. Prediction markets sit on a contested line between federally regulated derivatives and state-regulated gambling, and where that line falls decides what can be traded, by whom and from which state.
The coverage follows it to the source documents: CFTC orders and rule proposals, the complaints and rulings in the state cases, the bills in Congress. The aim is to explain what each development changes for someone deciding whether to trade, and what it does not.
Tax articles set out the treatments filers actually use while the IRS has published no guidance specific to prediction markets. None of it is legal or tax advice; anyone with a real decision to make should speak to a qualified professional.

How the CFTC regulates prediction markets: designated contract markets, self-certification, the Kalshi election case and the state fight over sports contracts.

Prediction market KYC explained: what Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig and Robinhood ask for, why regulated venues verify identity, and how to fix stalled checks.

Is Kalshi legit? A CFTC-regulated exchange with segregated funds and dollar settlement. What its licence protects, what it does not, and the risks that remain.

Are prediction markets gambling? Legally they are CFTC-regulated derivatives, but several states disagree. What each side argues and where the courts stand.

How Polymarket and Kalshi resolve contracts, why two venues can settle the same event differently, and how to read a rulebook before you trade.

Polymarket is legal in the US again through its CFTC-regulated US app, while the global site restricts the UK, France, Australia and others. The full 2026 map.

See which US states allow Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026, which have restricted or banned them, and why the legal picture keeps shifting state by state.

Prediction market insider trading regulation in 2026: the Schiff-Curtis bill, how exchanges police inside information, and what changes for traders.

How prediction market winnings are taxed in 2026: the three treatments filers use, what Kalshi and Polymarket report, and how to file with no IRS guidance.