How the CFTC Regulates Prediction Markets
How the CFTC regulates prediction markets: designated contract markets, self-certification, the Kalshi election case and the state fight over sports contracts.
Miriam Velde
Regulation & Policy Editor
Miriam Velde
Covers the law around prediction markets: CFTC oversight, the state fight over sports contracts, court rulings, identity rules and how profits are taxed.
9 articles
About Miriam
Miriam Velde covers regulation, litigation and tax for PredictReport. Prediction markets sit on a contested line between federally regulated derivatives and state-regulated gambling, and that line decides what can be traded, by whom and where. The coverage follows it: CFTC licensing, the lawsuits and criminal cases brought by states, the bills in Congress, and what each development means for someone deciding whether to trade.
The tax coverage takes the same approach, setting out the treatments filers actually use while the IRS has published no guidance specific to prediction markets. These articles explain the law for readers. They are not legal or tax advice, and anyone with a real decision to make should speak to a qualified professional.
Latest from Miriam
9 total
Prediction Market KYC: Why Platforms Verify ID
Prediction market KYC explained: what Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig and Robinhood ask for, why regulated venues verify identity, and how to fix stalled checks.
Miriam Velde
Is Kalshi Legit and Safe? 2026 Review
Is Kalshi legit? A CFTC-regulated exchange with segregated funds and dollar settlement. What its licence protects, what it does not, and the risks that remain.
Miriam Velde
Are Prediction Markets Gambling?
Are prediction markets gambling? Legally they are CFTC-regulated derivatives, but several states disagree. What each side argues and where the courts stand.
Miriam Velde
How Prediction Markets Resolve and Settle
How Polymarket and Kalshi resolve contracts, why two venues can settle the same event differently, and how to read a rulebook before you trade.
Miriam Velde
Where Is Polymarket Legal in 2026? The Real Answer
Polymarket is still off-limits to US traders in 2026. Here's exactly which countries allow it, why the US ban persists, and when that could change.
Miriam Velde
Prediction Markets Legal States: The 2026 State-by-State Map
See which US states allow Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026, which have restricted or banned them, and why the legal picture keeps shifting state by state.
Miriam Velde
Prediction Market Insider Trading Regulation 2026
Prediction market insider trading regulation in 2026: the Schiff-Curtis bill, how exchanges police inside information, and what changes for traders.
Miriam Velde
How Prediction Market Winnings Are Taxed in 2026: What the IRS Hasn't Told You
How prediction market winnings are taxed in 2026: the three treatments filers use, what Kalshi and Polymarket report, and how to file with no IRS guidance.
Miriam Velde