Mention markets let you trade on whether someone will say a particular word. Will the Fed chair say "recession" at the press conference? Will a CEO say "tariffs" on the earnings call? Will the announcers say a sponsor's name during the Super Bowl? Each contract pays $1 if the word is said within the defined event and $0 if it isn't, and the price is the market's estimate of the chance.
They have become one of the most popular categories on Kalshi and Polymarket because they are fast, frequent and easy to understand. They are also full of traps: the exact rules about who counts, which words qualify and what source settles the market decide more outcomes than any forecast. This guide explains how mention markets work, how each platform settles them and how to trade them.
| Event type | Typical question | Usual settlement source |
|---|---|---|
| Political speeches and pressers | Will the speaker say a word during the event? | Official transcript or recording named in the rules |
| Fed press conferences | Will the chair say "inflation" or "recession"? | The Fed's published transcript or video |
| Earnings calls | Will executives say "AI" or "tariffs"? | The company's official call transcript |
| Sports broadcasts | Will the announcers say a word or name? | The broadcast, often limited to named commentators |
| Entertainment events | Will a performer or host say something? | The broadcast |
How Mention Markets Settle
Every mention market defines three things: the event window (from when to when), the speakers who count and the word rules (exact phrase, plurals, variants, inside other words). Small differences in those definitions make two markets with the same headline settle differently.
Kalshi settles against the sources named in each contract's terms, which are filed with the CFTC. For mention markets that is usually an official transcript or a named media source. Its sports broadcast mentions can be narrow: in its NFL mention markets, only the designated play-by-play and color commentators count, so for Super Bowl LX only Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth did. A word said by a sideline reporter or in an ad would not count.
Polymarket's international platform settles through UMA's optimistic oracle. A proposed result can be disputed within a challenge window, and disputes go to a vote of UMA token holders. It often uses the broadcast itself as the source, which can count more speakers than a transcript. That is why the same word can be priced higher on Polymarket than on Kalshi for the same event. Our guide to how prediction markets resolve covers both systems.
The platforms do not always agree after the fact. In 2026 they parted ways over whether a guest at the Super Bowl halftime show had technically performed, a reminder that rule wording, not common sense, decides these contracts.
The Rule Details That Decide Markets
- Plurals and forms. Does "tariff" count if the speaker says "tariffs"? Does "AI" count inside "AI-driven"? Rules usually specify, and they differ by market.
- Who counts. A press conference can include reporters' questions; a rule may count only the principal speaker.
- Prepared remarks versus Q&A. Some markets count the whole event, others only the opening statement.
- The source. Transcripts can clean up or omit words; recordings capture everything said, including crosstalk.
- Timing. If an event starts late, runs long or is cancelled, the rules say what happens.
How to Trade Mention Markets
Use base rates. The best evidence is history. Search past transcripts of the same speaker in the same setting. A Fed chair who said "inflation" in every press conference for two years is likely to say it again; a CEO who never mentions a competitor by name probably won't.
Price the length. Longer events with more questions give a word more chances. A 30-minute press conference with open Q&A is very different from a two-minute statement.
Watch the news cycle. A word tied to a fresh story, such as a tariff announcement the day before, becomes much more likely to come up.
Respect late moves. Prices often jump in the minutes before an event, and the first time a word is said, its market settles in practice. Liquidity is thin, so use limit orders rather than chasing.
Compare platforms. Because Kalshi and Polymarket can define speakers and sources differently, the same headline can carry different prices. That is often a difference in rules, not an arbitrage. Read both before trading the gap.
The Insider and Manipulation Risk
Mention markets have an obvious weakness: the person speaking controls the outcome, and so can anyone who writes their remarks. Both Kalshi and Polymarket now bar people who can influence an outcome from trading on it, and lawmakers have taken note. Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act in March 2026 to ban wagers on events whose outcome participants already know or control. Our guide to prediction market insider trading rules covers the rules and the cases.
For traders, the risk runs both ways. A speaker who knows a market exists can avoid a word, or say it, on purpose. Treat markets on speakers who joke about prediction markets with extra caution.
Where Mention Markets Are Headed
The calendar is full of recurring events: eight Fed press conferences a year (see our 2027 FOMC schedule), quarterly earnings seasons, major sports broadcasts and political addresses. Expect mention markets on all of them, along with continuing scrutiny of who is allowed to trade them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a mention market?
A contract on whether a specific word or phrase will be said during a defined event, such as a speech, press conference, earnings call or broadcast. It pays $1 if the word is said under the market's rules and $0 if not.
How do mention markets settle?
Against the source named in the rules, usually an official transcript or the broadcast itself, within the event window and for the speakers the rules name. Read the rules on plurals, variants and who counts.
Why is the same word priced differently on Kalshi and Polymarket?
The platforms often define speakers and sources differently. Kalshi's NFL mention markets, for example, count only the designated commentators, while a broadcast-based rule may count more people.
Can the speaker manipulate a mention market?
They control the outcome, which is why both platforms bar people who can influence a result from trading on it. Lawmakers have proposed banning wagers on events participants control.
Where can I trade mention markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list mention markets on political events, Fed press conferences, earnings calls and major broadcasts.
Are mention markets legal?
In the US they are listed as event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges. Trading on inside knowledge of what someone will say, or influencing it, breaks the platforms' rules.
