Polymarket vs Kalshi Odds

Every market on this page trades on both Polymarket and Kalshi at the same time. Because the two venues run separate order books, the same outcome routinely carries different prices — sometimes by a fraction of a cent, occasionally by eight points or more. This page tracks those prices and shows you which venue is currently cheaper for each outcome.

Prices come straight from each venue's public market data. The Polymarket column is the last traded probability. The Kalshi column is the midpoint of the best bid and ask, shown as a raw bid–ask range instead whenever that book is too wide for a midpoint to mean anything.

When two venues disagree on the same event, the gap is tradeable in two ways. The simple version is price shopping: if you already want to back an outcome, buy it wherever it costs less. The harder version is genuine arbitrage — buying YES on one venue and NO on the other when the two together cost less than $1, which locks in the difference no matter how the event resolves.

Both are constrained by the same thing: cost. Polymarket taker fees run 0.75% to 1.80% by category, Kalshi charges roughly two cents per contract, and you need funded accounts on both sides — USDC for Polymarket, dollars for Kalshi. That is why the widest-gaps panel at the top only flags differences of three points or more. Below that, the spread is usually smaller than the cost of capturing it.

For the full mechanics, including how to size positions and what happens when one leg fills and the other does not, read our guide to arbitraging prediction markets. If you are choosing a single venue rather than running both, the head-to-head comparison and our list of the best prediction market apps cover fees, deposits and market depth.

Each row is one outcome. The two price cells show what that outcome costs on each venue in cents, where 52.0¢ means the market implies a 52% chance. The cheaper cell is outlined in that venue's colour. The arrow beside a name is how far the Polymarket price has moved in the last 24 hours.

A blank difference column is deliberate: it means Kalshi's bid–ask spread is wider than five points, and a midpoint drawn from a book that thin would invent a disagreement rather than report one. New to the mechanics? How prediction markets work explains contract pricing from the beginning.