Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Polymarket vs Kalshi

34 outcomes on both venues·updated Sep 1, 09:50 PM UTC

J.D. Vance leads at 52.0¢ on Polymarket against 44.5¢ on Kalshi. 2 outcomes currently differ by 3 points or more between the two venues — the kind of gap that can survive fees and taxes.

Open on Polymarket Open on Kalshi

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
J.D. Vance	52.0¢	44.5¢	+7.5
Marco Rubio	17.8¢	21.5¢	-3.8
Tucker Carlson	2.6¢	2.5¢	+0.2
Ron DeSantis	2.5¢	4.3¢	-1.8
Donald Trump	2.1¢	2.3¢	-0.2
Donald Trump Jr.	1.6¢	3.9¢	-2.3
Ted Cruz	1.3¢	1.4¢	-0.2
Glenn Youngkin	0.9¢	1.1¢	-0.1
Elon Musk	0.8¢	0.3¢	+0.5
Ivanka Trump	0.8¢	0.9¢	-0.2
Tulsi Gabbard	0.7¢	0.3¢	+0.4
Thomas Massie	0.5¢	1.1¢	-0.6
Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.5¢	0.6¢	-0.1
Greg Abbott	0.5¢	0.7¢	-0.1
Byron Donalds	0.5¢	0.4¢	+0.1
Pete Hegseth	0.4¢	1.2¢	-0.8
Elise Stefanik	0.4¢	0.3¢	+0.2
Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.4¢	0.8¢	-0.3
Brian Kemp	0.4¢	0.7¢	-0.3
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.4¢	0.6¢	-0.3
Josh Hawley	0.4¢	0.8¢	-0.4
Steve Bannon	0.4¢	0.3¢	+0.1
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.4¢	0.4¢	0.0
Kristi Noem	0.3¢	0.1¢	—
Eric Trump	0.3¢	0.4¢	-0.1
Rand Paul	0.3¢	0.5¢	-0.3
Nikki Haley	0.3¢	0.4¢	-0.1
Erika Kirk	0.3¢	0.1¢	—
Katie Britt	0.3¢	0.4¢	-0.1
Mike Pence	0.3¢	0.6¢	-0.3
Candace Owens	0.3¢	1.0¢	—
Tom Cotton	0.1¢	0.3¢	-0.1
John Thune	0.1¢	0.1¢	0.0
Matt Gaetz	0.1¢	0.1¢	0.0

Polymarket shows the last traded price; Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint. Where the Kalshi book is too wide to compare, the raw bid–ask range is shown instead and no difference is reported. Prices move continuously — confirm on the venue before trading.

Where to trade this

Polymarket review

USDC settlement, taker fees 0.75–1.80%, no interest on balances.

Kalshi review

CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, about 4% APY on idle cash.

Deciding between them? Read the full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison, or see the best prediction market apps.