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Ballon d'Or Winner: Polymarket vs Kalshi
23 outcomes on both venues·updated Sep 1, 09:50 PM UTC
Harry Kane leads at 63.8¢ on Polymarket against 65.5¢ on Kalshi. 1 outcome currently differ by 3 points or more between the two venues — the kind of gap that can survive fees and taxes.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 63.8¢ | 65.5¢ | -1.6 |
| Lamine Yamal | 16.4¢ | 14.5¢ | +1.9 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 7.6¢ | 11.0¢ | -3.4 |
| Rodri | 6.5¢ | 5.5¢ | +1.0 |
| Lionel Messi | 2.9¢ | 3.5¢ | -0.7 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 2.1¢ | 1.5¢ | +0.6 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 1.1¢ | 1.5¢ | -0.5 |
| Erling Haaland | 0.3¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Michael Olise | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Vitinha | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Raphinha | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Pedri | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Luis Diaz | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Declan Rice | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Desire Doue | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
| Cole Palmer | 0.1¢ | 1.0¢ | — |
Polymarket shows the last traded price; Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint. Where the Kalshi book is too wide to compare, the raw bid–ask range is shown instead and no difference is reported. Prices move continuously — confirm on the venue before trading.
Where to trade this
Polymarket review
USDC settlement, taker fees 0.75–1.80%, no interest on balances.
Kalshi review
CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, about 4% APY on idle cash.
Deciding between them? Read the full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison, or see the best prediction market apps.
