Prediction Markets Daily: October 18, 2026
The CFTC sides with the exchanges on what counts as a swap, Google shuts prediction market ads out of five states, and most Americans say no to election betting.
The PredictReport newsroom's first digest catches up on a busy week. The CFTC took the exchanges' side on what counts as a swap, while states kept winning in court and widened the pressure to marketing.
The day's stories
CFTC's new swap definitions arrive as Kalshi asks two appeals courts to reconsider
The CFTC proposed on Oct. 9 that sports, political, cultural and weather event contracts are swaps, and an interim rule says sportsbook bets are not. Kalshi has cited the rulemaking in asking the Sixth and Ninth Circuits to rehear rulings that favored the states.
Underdog sues Tennessee after state threatens its fantasy sports license
Underdog sued Tennessee on Oct. 13 after regulators threatened penalties and its affiliate's fantasy sports license. It faces the Sixth Circuit's September ruling that Tennessee can enforce its gambling law against sports contracts.
Google now blocks prediction market ads in five states after adding Connecticut
Google added Connecticut to the states where prediction market ads are banned, joining Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. The policy limits marketing, not trading, but marketing is now part of the legal fight in Michigan.
Most Americans oppose betting on elections, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 60% of US adults oppose betting on elections, including majorities of both parties. Polymarket and Kalshi still price the Democrats near 90% to win the House.
BetMGM chief predicts a Supreme Court loss for prediction markets as Kalshi outearns it
Kalshi earned $737 million in sports contract fees in the third quarter, more than BetMGM's $216 million in sports revenue. BetMGM's CEO expects the Supreme Court to rule for the states in its 2026-27 term.
Biggest odds moves
| Market | Outcome | Polymarket | 24h change | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS Cup Winner | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 19.7% | +4.5 pts | 17.5% |
| College Football National Champion | Alabama Crimson Tide | 4.4% | -3.9 pts | 4.5% |
| College Football National Champion | Georgia Bulldogs | 16.4% | -3.6 pts | 15.5% |
| Ohio Senate Special Race 2026 | Jon Husted (R) | 32.5% | -3.0 pts | 35.5% |
| College Football National Champion | Ohio State Buckeyes | 16.5% | -3.0 pts | 14.5% |
Prices as of 2:37 PM EDT. Compare every market live.
What to watch
- Federal Register publication of the CFTC's swap proposal, which opens a 30-day comment period.
- Rulings on Kalshi's rehearing petitions in the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, and on Underdog's bid to keep operating in Tennessee.
- A Nov. 24 hearing on Michigan's request to hold Kalshi in contempt over sports marketing.
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More news
All newsCFTC's new swap definitions arrive as Kalshi asks two appeals courts to reconsider
The agency says sports event contracts are swaps and sportsbook bets are not. Lawyers doubt that alone will settle Kalshi's fight with the states.
Google now blocks prediction market ads in five states after adding Connecticut
Kalshi and other event-contract platforms can't target Google ads at Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York or Ohio residents.
Most Americans oppose betting on elections, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Sixty percent of US adults oppose election betting, with majorities in both parties, weeks before the midterms put election contracts to the test.