MLS Cup Winner: Polymarket vs Kalshi
Nashville SC leads at 21.6¢ on Polymarket against 20.5¢ on Kalshi. The two venues agree closely on this market right now: no outcome differs by 3 points or more.
Poly
KalshiDiff
Nashville SC▼0.621.6¢20.5¢+1.1Inter Miami CF17.0¢18.5¢-1.5Vancouver Whitecaps FC▲0.515.0¢16.5¢-1.4FC Dallas▲0.16.2¢5.5¢+0.7St. Louis City SC6.0¢5.5¢+0.5New England Revolution▼0.14.9¢4.5¢+0.3Los Angeles FC▼0.54.9¢5.5¢-0.7Chicago Fire FC4.5¢3.5¢+0.9Philadelphia Union3.9¢4.5¢-0.6Houston Dynamo FC2.8¢3.5¢-0.8Charlotte FC2.6¢2.5¢+0.1San Jose Earthquakes2.4¢2.5¢-0.1Orlando City SC▲0.11.3¢2.0¢—Seattle Sounders FC▼0.40.8¢2.0¢—Colorado Rapids▼0.30.8¢1.5¢-0.8FC Cincinnati0.8¢1.5¢-0.8LA Galaxy0.7¢2.0¢—Columbus Crew0.7¢1.5¢-0.8Portland Timbers▲0.10.4¢1.0¢—Real Salt Lake0.3¢1.0¢—Toronto FC▼0.10.1¢1.0¢—Minnesota United FC0.1¢1.0¢—Polymarket shows the last traded price; Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint. Where the Kalshi book is too wide to compare, the raw bid–ask range is shown instead and no difference is reported. Prices move continuously — confirm on the venue before trading.
Where to trade this
Polymarket review
USDC settlement, taker fees 0.75–1.80%, no interest on balances.
Kalshi review
CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, about 4% APY on idle cash.
Deciding between them? Read the full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison, or see the best prediction market apps.
MLS Cup Winner odds explained
The table above prices MLS Cup Winner on Polymarket and Kalshi at the same moment. Each figure is what one contract costs in cents, so 52.0¢ means the market implies a 52% chance. Contracts settle at $1, which makes the price and the implied probability the same number.
The two venues run separate order books, so the same outcome can sit several points apart. Where the gap reaches three points it is worth a look: that is roughly what a difference needs to be to survive Polymarket's 0.75–1.80% taker fee and Kalshi's per-contract charge. Our prediction market arbitrage guide covers how to trade a gap without getting caught with one leg filled.
Frequently asked questions
Where can I get the best odds on MLS Cup Winner?
The table above prices MLS Cup Winner on both venues, refreshed every ten minutes, with the cheaper side highlighted for each outcome. It is often not the same venue across the whole board.
Is there an arbitrage opportunity on MLS Cup Winner?
Differences of three points or more are flagged above — roughly what a gap needs to survive fees on both sides. Smaller ones are shown but rarely worth acting on; the arbitrage guide covers the execution risk.
Who is favourite in MLS Cup Winner?
Nashville SC carries the highest implied probability on Polymarket right now. The ranking reflects the most recent sync and moves with the market.
Do I owe tax on profits from this market?
Yes. Kalshi issues a 1099-MISC and Polymarket issues nothing, and there is no IRS guidance specific to prediction markets — see the tax guide.
More sports odds, or every market we track on the Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison. New to this? Start with how prediction markets work and the best prediction market apps.