Most Americans oppose betting on elections, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

Most Americans oppose betting on elections through prediction markets, and the opposition crosses party lines, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

Sixty percent of US adults said they do not support betting on election results, 13% said they support it and 24% were unsure, Gambling.com reported. The poll surveyed 4,506 Americans from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, according to Fox 9.

Opposition held in both parties: 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans said they oppose using prediction markets to bet on election results.

Wider unease over betting on government

Respondents were more opposed still to markets on government actions. Sixty-five percent opposed prediction market bets on US military actions and 63% opposed bets on government policy announcements or decisions, against 8% and 9% in favor.

Members of Congress drew the strongest response. Ninety percent of Democrats and 89% of Republicans said it was inappropriate for lawmakers or their staff to bet on political events. The Senate already barred its own members and staff from trading event contracts in April, and both Kalshi and Polymarket have tightened their rules on insiders after a series of cases this year. Reuters noted that Kalshi banned former Republican congressman George Santos, who agreed to pay $35,000 to resolve government allegations of manipulative trading over a bet on whether he would attend the State of the Union. Santos did not admit the allegations.

Sports drew a softer reaction: 43% of respondents opposed betting on professional sports, while 29% favored it.

Why it matters for traders

Public opinion is becoming part of the regulatory fight. Lawmakers who want limits on election and government-event contracts can now point to majorities in both parties, while the platforms argue that their markets are federally regulated and policed for insider trading.

Markets still favor the Democrats in the House. On Oct. 18, Polymarket and Kalshi both priced the Democrats' chances of winning the House at about 90%, according to PredictReport's odds tracker. For Senate control, Polymarket had Democrats at about 65% and Kalshi at about 63%.

Election contracts carry their own legal risks. Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi included counts over election bets, and some state bills reach political markets as well as sports. Our guide to the 2026 midterm markets explains how those contracts work and settle.

What to watch

The midterms on Nov. 3 will be the biggest test yet for election contracts on federally regulated exchanges. Meanwhile, the CFTC's proposal to define political and sports event contracts as swaps is heading into its public comment period, and bills that would restrict trading on government decisions remain pending in Congress.