BetMGM chief predicts a Supreme Court loss for prediction markets as Kalshi outearns it

BetMGM's chief executive expects the Supreme Court to side with the states against prediction markets, even as Kalshi now earns more from sports than BetMGM does.

Kalshi made $737 million in fees on sports event contracts in the third quarter, InGame reported, well above the $216 million in sports revenue BetMGM reported for the same period. Earlier this year Kalshi displaced BetMGM from the top three US companies offering bets on sports, InGame noted.

BetMGM pulls back to protect profit

BetMGM, owned jointly by MGM Resorts and Entain, reported third-quarter revenue up 7% to $710 million, with $483 million from online casino games and $216 million from sports. Active players fell 3% to 878,000, which CEO Adam Greenblatt said was expected after the company cut marketing in states where it can offer only sports betting and focused on online casino states and higher-spending customers. Adjusted earnings more than doubled.

Greenblatt called the competitive environment intense, "particularly due to investment by unregulated and illegal operators offering sports betting." The remark came amid heightened competition from prediction markets, whose sports contracts are sold without state gaming licenses.

A bet on the Supreme Court

Greenblatt said he expects the uncertainty over sports event contracts to be settled by the Supreme Court in its 2026-27 term. "I think the key test is whether this was the intent of Congress," he told analysts, according to CDC Gaming, adding that he believes it will be shown not to be.

The justices have not yet agreed to hear a prediction market case. New Jersey has petitioned the court over the Third Circuit's ruling for Kalshi, while the Sixth and Ninth Circuits have sided with states. The current term runs through June 2027.

Greenblatt was also unimpressed by the CFTC's interim rule excluding casino-style games from the definition of a swap, calling it "cosmetics in pursuit of survival" and saying a future rule could undo it just as easily.

Why it matters for traders

The sportsbook industry is now openly planning around a Supreme Court decision. A ruling for the states would let each state treat sports contracts as gambling, which is already the case in Nevada, Ohio and Tennessee while their cases continue. A ruling for the exchanges would cement the CFTC's authority and a national market for sports contracts.

Until then, Kalshi's fee income shows how much sports trading has moved onto exchanges. Our comparison of prediction markets and sports betting breaks down how pricing and fees differ between the two, and our Kalshi review covers what the exchange charges.

What happens next

The Supreme Court could decide whether to take up New Jersey's petition in the coming months. Kalshi, meanwhile, is seeking rehearings in both the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, and BetMGM's next quarterly results will show whether its marketing retreat keeps paying off.