Kalshi lets you trade the next inflation print the way you would trade an election. Before each Consumer Price Index release, it lists a ladder of contracts on where the number will land; before each jobs report, a ladder on payrolls and the unemployment rate; before each GDP release, a ladder on growth. Every contract pays $1 if the figure lands in its bracket and $0 if it does not, and every price is the market's probability for that outcome.
Kalshi economic data markets are among the cleanest contracts in the category. The outcome is a number published by a federal agency at a scheduled time, so there is little room for interpretation. They also carry unusual weight in 2026: inflation has been climbing since early in the year, the Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and every CPI and jobs print between now and December will move the odds of another hike.
This guide covers how the markets work, the specifics of trading CPI, jobs and GDP, how the contracts settle — including what happens when the government does not publish the data — where an edge can come from, and what it costs to trade.
| Indicator | Published by | Release time | Market format | What drives it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Monthly, 8:30 a.m. ET | Brackets on monthly and annual change | Energy, shelter, goods prices |
| Nonfarm payrolls | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Usually first Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET | Brackets on jobs added | Hiring, seasonal effects |
| Unemployment rate | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Same release as payrolls | Brackets on the rate | Labour force and hiring |
| GDP (advance estimate) | Bureau of Economic Analysis | Quarterly, 8:30 a.m. ET | Brackets on annualised growth | Consumption, trade, inventories |
| Fed decision | Federal Open Market Committee | Eight meetings a year, 2:00 p.m. ET | Hike, hold or cut | Inflation and jobs data |
| Gas prices | AAA national average | Daily | Above or below thresholds | Oil prices |
How Economic Data Markets Work
Each release gets its own set of contracts. For CPI, Kalshi might list brackets for the monthly change — 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4% and so on — with a contract for each, plus "above" and "below" contracts at the edges. Exactly one bracket will contain the published figure, so exactly one contract pays $1.
That makes the ladder a probability distribution. If the 0.3% bracket trades at 45¢, the 0.2% bracket at 25¢ and the 0.4% bracket at 20¢, the market's most likely outcome is 0.3%, with meaningful weight on either side. When new information arrives — a surge in oil prices, a surprise in a related report — money moves between the brackets and the distribution shifts. For the basics of how contracts and prices relate, see how prediction markets work.
Buying a bracket is a bet that the number lands there. Buying several adjacent brackets is a bet on a range. Selling a bracket you think is overpriced — or buying NO on it — is a bet against it. Because each contract settles independently, you can express almost any view about where a number will land.
Trading CPI Markets
CPI is the flagship economic market, and in 2026 it is the one the Fed is watching most closely. Inflation has been rising since early in the year as the war with Iran pushed oil prices higher, according to CNN's reporting, and the Fed cited elevated inflation when it hiked in September.
Two technical points trip up new traders. First, the monthly change in headline CPI is published seasonally adjusted, while the annual change is calculated from the unadjusted index. They are different numbers built differently, and a contract on one tells you little about the other. Second, the BLS publishes the monthly change rounded to one decimal place, and contracts settle on the published figure. A true change of 0.249% prints as 0.2%; one of 0.251% prints as 0.3%. Close calls are decided by rounding, not by economics.
The biggest driver of month-to-month surprises is usually energy, because gasoline prices move fast and feed straight into the headline. That links CPI markets to Kalshi's gas price markets and to oil news generally. Shelter costs, the largest component of core CPI, move slowly and are easier to forecast. Our Fed rate odds show how each CPI print shifts the probability of another hike, and the live Fed decision page tracks those prices every ten minutes.
Trading Jobs Report Markets
The monthly Employment Situation report produces two headline numbers that Kalshi lists markets on: nonfarm payrolls, the net number of jobs added, and the unemployment rate. Both are released at the same moment, usually on the first Friday of the month.
Payrolls are noisy. The first estimate is based on a survey of employers and is revised in each of the following two months, sometimes substantially. The market settles on the first published figure, so revisions do not affect your contract — but they matter for your judgment, because a pattern of large revisions tells you how uncertain the first print is. The noise is also political: in August 2025, after a weak report with large downward revisions, the president fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders who want more on how political events create market risk can read our analysis of prediction market insider trading regulation.
The unemployment rate comes from a separate household survey and moves in tenths of a point. It is less volatile than payrolls month to month, which makes its brackets narrower and its markets more tightly priced. A labour market that stays resilient, as the Fed described it in September, keeps the unemployment rate stable and gives the central bank room to focus on inflation.
Trading GDP Markets
GDP markets settle on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of quarterly growth, expressed as an annualised rate. The advance estimate arrives about a month after the quarter ends and is revised twice afterwards; as with jobs, the contract settles on the first figure.
GDP is harder to forecast than it looks, because a few volatile components — inventories, net exports and government spending — can swing the headline by a point or more. Public nowcasts help. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model updates its estimate of the current quarter as each data point arrives, and traders watch it closely. The Cleveland Fed publishes a similar nowcast for inflation. Neither is a guarantee, but both give you a data-driven baseline to compare with the market's prices.
GDP markets also connect to the rest of the macro board. A weak advance estimate raises the odds that the Fed pauses its hiking, and a strong one does the opposite, so traders often hold GDP brackets alongside Fed contracts as a single view on the economy. Our economics markets tracker shows the Fed contracts we price on both Polymarket and Kalshi, updated every ten minutes.
A Worked Example: Trading a CPI Ladder
Suppose the monthly CPI ladder shows 25¢ on 0.2%, 45¢ on 0.3% and 20¢ on 0.4%, with the remaining brackets sharing about 10¢. The market's view is clear: 0.3% is most likely, and a print of 0.4% or higher is roughly a one-in-four chance.
Now suppose gasoline prices jumped sharply during the survey month, and your own estimate puts 0.4% at 30% rather than 20%. Buying the 0.4% bracket at 20¢ gives you an expected value of about 10¢ per contract before fees — you pay 20¢ for something you think is worth 30¢. At 200 contracts that is $40 of cost for an expected $60 of value. You will still lose most of the time; the case for the trade is that the price is lower than your probability, not that the outcome is likely.
If you are right about the direction but unsure of the size, buying both the 0.4% and the 0.5% brackets spreads the bet across a range. Selling the 0.2% bracket, or buying NO on it, is the mirror-image way to express the same view. Our explainer on prediction market odds shows how each bracket price converts into the odds a sportsbook would quote.
How These Markets Settle — and What Happens When Data Is Late
Economic contracts settle on the figure as first published by the relevant agency. Check each market's rules for the exact series — headline or core, seasonally adjusted or not, monthly or annual — because the rules, not the market's title, decide what pays. Our explainer on how prediction markets resolve covers what to look for.
The edge case that matters most is a delayed release. During the federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025 — at 43 days, the longest on record — the statistical agencies stopped work, and releases were pushed back. The October 2025 CPI was never published at all. Kalshi's rules for these contracts extend the expiration when a release is delayed, with a backstop date if the data never arrives, which is exactly the situation traders found themselves in.
The practical lesson is that "data on a schedule" is only as reliable as the government publishing it. If a shutdown is likely, contracts on releases during the affected period carry extra timing risk, and money may be tied up far longer than expected.
Where an Edge Can Come From
Economic markets are competitive. Professional forecasters publish consensus estimates for every major release, and the market's most likely bracket usually sits near that consensus. Beating the market means having a better view than the consensus, which is hard.
Three sources help. Nowcasts such as GDPNow and the Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast update continuously and sometimes diverge from the consensus. Earlier data releases contain information about later ones: the ADP private payrolls report, published two days before the official jobs report, and the weekly jobless claims data both say something about the labour market. And high-frequency prices — gasoline in particular — tell you a lot about the energy component of CPI before the BLS does.
None of this is secret, which is why it is mostly priced in. The more reliable edge is in execution: using limit orders, avoiding the spread, and not trading into the release. Our expected value guide explains how to decide whether a bracket's price is worth paying, and our EV calculator runs the numbers.
The Release Moment
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the number is published and the markets settle in effect instantly — the bracket containing the figure goes to $1 and the rest to $0. In the minutes before, liquidity often thins as market makers pull their quotes to avoid being caught by the release.
That creates a trap. A trader who places a market order just before the release can pay a wide spread for a position that is about to be decided anyway. Place your orders well before the release, use limit orders rather than market orders, and cancel any resting orders you would not want filled at the last second. Our guide to limit orders explains how, and our guide to prediction market liquidity explains why books thin out before scheduled events.
Fees, Interest and Costs
Kalshi charges 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price) per trade, rounded up to the next cent. Buying 200 contracts on a CPI bracket at 35¢ costs $70 plus about $3.19 in fees. There is no fee when the contract settles. Our Kalshi fees explainer walks through the formula, and our market fee calculator handles any trade.
Kalshi also pays roughly 4% a year on idle cash, which matters for these markets because most contracts settle within weeks. Money sitting between releases earns interest rather than nothing. Our Kalshi review covers the interest programme and the platform's other features.
Using Economic Markets to Hedge
Economic data markets are also a hedging tool. A business whose costs rise with inflation can buy high-CPI brackets as partial protection; a borrower worried about rate hikes can buy the brackets that would push the Fed to act. The contracts pay in exactly the scenarios that hurt, which is what a hedge is for. Our guide to hedging with prediction markets explains how to size these positions.
Getting Started
Kalshi is the main venue for US economic data markets. It is regulated by the CFTC as a designated contract market and settles in dollars; our guide to depositing on Kalshi covers funding an account. Polymarket lists Fed decision markets and some macro questions, but its economic-data coverage is narrower — see Polymarket vs Kalshi. For the wider field, our ranking of the best prediction market apps compares every venue.
Start with a single indicator, follow it for a few releases before trading, and compare the market's prices with the consensus and the nowcasts each time. Profits are taxable when realised, and Kalshi issues a 1099-MISC; see our prediction market tax guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you bet on CPI on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi lists contracts on each monthly CPI release, with brackets for where the figure will land. The bracket containing the published number pays $1 and the others pay nothing.
When do Kalshi CPI markets settle?
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the figure, usually at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Contracts settle on the first published number, not later revisions.
Do Kalshi jobs report markets use revised numbers?
No. They settle on the figure as first published. Payroll estimates are revised in the following two months, but those revisions do not affect settled contracts.
What happens to Kalshi economic markets during a government shutdown?
The rules extend the expiration if a release is delayed, with a backstop date if the data never arrives. During the 2025 shutdown, the October 2025 CPI was never published. See our guide to how prediction markets resolve.
How do I get an edge on economic data markets?
Compare the market's prices with consensus forecasts and public nowcasts such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, and watch earlier releases like ADP payrolls. Most of that is priced in, so disciplined execution with limit orders is the more reliable edge.
What are the fees on Kalshi economic markets?
Kalshi charges 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price) per trade. There is no fee at settlement, and idle cash earns about 4% a year.
Does Polymarket have economic data markets?
Polymarket lists Fed decision markets and some macro questions, but Kalshi has the broader range of CPI, jobs and GDP contracts. See Polymarket vs Kalshi.
How do CPI releases affect Fed rate odds?
A higher-than-expected print raises the probability of a hike, and a softer one lowers it, usually within seconds of the release. Our Fed rate odds show the current pricing.
