Parlay Calculator for Prediction Markets
Combine multiple contracts into one payout and see the real chance of every leg landing.
These numbers assume the legs are independent. They rarely are — and that cuts both ways. Correlated legs (a team winning and its striker scoring) are worth more than the product of their prices, so a venue quoting the naive multiple is charging you for the correlation. Uncorrelated legs simply compound the house edge on each one.
How it works
A parlay multiplies the prices of its legs. Three contracts at 52¢, 60¢ and 45¢ combine to 14¢ — a payout of about 7.1× — and land together only 14% of the time. The multiple looks generous precisely because it is unlikely.
The arithmetic here assumes the legs are independent, which is the assumption a quoted parlay price is built on and often the reason the price is wrong. Correlated legs — a team winning and its striker scoring — are genuinely more likely together than the product suggests, so a venue quoting the naive multiple is charging you for the correlation. Genuinely independent legs do the opposite: they compound whatever edge the venue holds on each one.
On prediction markets you can usually build the same exposure by buying each leg separately, which lets you exit any one of them before settlement — something a packaged parlay never allows.
Frequently asked questions
How is a parlay payout calculated?
Multiply the legs' probabilities for the combined chance, then divide 1 by it for the multiple. 52% × 60% × 45% ≈ 14%, so about 7.1× the stake.
Are parlays a bad bet?
Usually — the edge against you compounds with every leg. The exception is correlated legs quoted at the naive product, which understates how often they land together.
Can you parlay on Kalshi or Polymarket?
Not as a packaged product in the sportsbook sense, though Kalshi lists some multi-leg combinations. Buying each leg separately gets you the same exposure and lets you exit any one of them.
Other calculators
For live prices instead of hypotheticals, see the Polymarket vs Kalshi arbitrage scanner, or compare the venues in our head-to-head breakdown.
