MLB American League MVP: Polymarket vs Kalshi
Yordan Alvarez leads at 96.5¢ on Polymarket against 97.0¢ on Kalshi. The two venues agree closely on this market right now: no outcome differs by 3 points or more.
Poly
KalshiDiff
Yordan Alvarez▲0.196.5¢97.0¢-0.5Junior Caminero▼0.82.2¢2.0¢+0.2Cam Schlittler▼1.40.9¢1.0¢—Bobby Witt Jr.0.3¢1.0¢—Vladimir Guerrero Jr.0.1¢1.0¢—Jose Ramirez0.1¢1.0¢—Corey Seager0.1¢1.0¢—Cal Raleigh0.1¢1.0¢—Aaron Judge0.1¢1.0¢—Miguel Vargas0.1¢1.0¢—Dillon Dingler0.1¢1.0¢—Munetaka Murakami0.1¢1.0¢—Pete Alonso0.1¢1.0¢—Nick Kurtz0.1¢1.0¢—Mike Trout0.1¢1.0¢—Julio Rodriguez0.1¢1.0¢—Gunnar Henderson0.1¢1.0¢—Ben Rice▼0.30.1¢1.0¢—Byron Buxton0.1¢1.0¢—Polymarket shows the last traded price; Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint. Where the Kalshi book is too wide to compare, the raw bid–ask range is shown instead and no difference is reported. Prices move continuously — confirm on the venue before trading.
Where to trade this
Polymarket review
USDC settlement, taker fees 0.75–1.80%, no interest on balances.
Kalshi review
CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, about 4% APY on idle cash.
Deciding between them? Read the full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison, or see the best prediction market apps.
MLB American League MVP odds explained
The table above prices MLB American League MVP on Polymarket and Kalshi at the same moment. Each figure is what one contract costs in cents, so 52.0¢ means the market implies a 52% chance. Contracts settle at $1, which makes the price and the implied probability the same number.
The two venues run separate order books, so the same outcome can sit several points apart. Where the gap reaches three points it is worth a look: that is roughly what a difference needs to be to survive Polymarket's 0.75–1.80% taker fee and Kalshi's per-contract charge. Our prediction market arbitrage guide covers how to trade a gap without getting caught with one leg filled.
Frequently asked questions
Where can I get the best odds on MLB American League MVP?
The table above prices MLB American League MVP on both venues, refreshed every ten minutes, with the cheaper side highlighted for each outcome. It is often not the same venue across the whole board.
Is there an arbitrage opportunity on MLB American League MVP?
Differences of three points or more are flagged above — roughly what a gap needs to survive fees on both sides. Smaller ones are shown but rarely worth acting on; the arbitrage guide covers the execution risk.
Who is favourite in MLB American League MVP?
Yordan Alvarez carries the highest implied probability on Polymarket right now. The ranking reflects the most recent sync and moves with the market.
Do I owe tax on profits from this market?
Yes. Kalshi issues a 1099-MISC and Polymarket issues nothing, and there is no IRS guidance specific to prediction markets — see the tax guide.
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