Culture Odds

Prize markets — the Nobels, major awards, person-of-the-year lists — are where the two venues disagree most, and for a structural reason: each lists its own slate of nominees. Kalshi and Polymarket often share only a third of the same names on a Nobel Peace Prize book, so the prices reflect different fields as much as different opinions.

Only outcomes that exist on both venues appear here. Where one venue lists a nominee the other does not, that name is simply absent rather than shown against a blank.