Next Fed Rate Decision: Polymarket vs Kalshi
25 bps increase leads at 57.5¢ on Polymarket against 60.5¢ on Kalshi. 1 outcome currently differ by 3 points or more between the two venues — the kind of gap that can survive fees and taxes.
Poly
KalshiDiff
25 bps increase57.5¢60.5¢-3.0No change40.5¢38.5¢+2.050+ bps increase▼0.10.9¢1.5¢-0.625 bps decrease0.5¢1.0¢—50+ bps decrease0.1¢1.0¢—Polymarket shows the last traded price; Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint. Where the Kalshi book is too wide to compare, the raw bid–ask range is shown instead and no difference is reported. Prices move continuously — confirm on the venue before trading.
Where to trade this
Polymarket review
USDC settlement, taker fees 0.75–1.80%, no interest on balances.
Kalshi review
CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, about 4% APY on idle cash.
Deciding between them? Read the full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison, or see the best prediction market apps.
Next Fed Rate Decision odds explained
The table above prices Next Fed Rate Decision on Polymarket and Kalshi at the same moment. Each figure is what one contract costs in cents, so 52.0¢ means the market implies a 52% chance. Contracts settle at $1, which makes the price and the implied probability the same number.
The two venues run separate order books, so the same outcome can sit several points apart. Where the gap reaches three points it is worth a look: that is roughly what a difference needs to be to survive Polymarket's 0.75–1.80% taker fee and Kalshi's per-contract charge. Our prediction market arbitrage guide covers how to trade a gap without getting caught with one leg filled.
Frequently asked questions
Where can I get the best odds on Next Fed Rate Decision?
The table above prices Next Fed Rate Decision on both venues, refreshed every ten minutes, with the cheaper side highlighted for each outcome. It is often not the same venue across the whole board.
Is there an arbitrage opportunity on Next Fed Rate Decision?
Differences of three points or more are flagged above — roughly what a gap needs to survive fees on both sides. Smaller ones are shown but rarely worth acting on; the arbitrage guide covers the execution risk.
Who is favourite in Next Fed Rate Decision?
25 bps increase carries the highest implied probability on Polymarket right now. The ranking reflects the most recent sync and moves with the market.
Do I owe tax on profits from this market?
Yes. Kalshi issues a 1099-MISC and Polymarket issues nothing, and there is no IRS guidance specific to prediction markets — see the tax guide.
More economics odds, or every market we track on the Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison. New to this? Start with how prediction markets work and the best prediction market apps.
