How Many Fed Rate Cuts: Polymarket vs Kalshi

13 outcomes on both venues·updated Sep 2, 03:10 AM UTC

0 (0 bps) leads at 88.9¢ on Polymarket against 89.2¢ on Kalshi. The two venues agree closely on this market right now: no outcome differs by 3 points or more.

Trade on Polymarket Kalshi

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Outcome

Poly

KalshiDiff

0 (0 bps)88.9¢89.2¢-0.3

1 (25 bps)8.5¢9.4¢-0.9

2 (50 bps)2.3¢2.3¢0.0

3 (75 bps)0.8¢0.1¢+0.6

4 (100 bps)0.3¢0.1¢+0.1

5 (125 bps)0.2¢0.1¢+0.1

7 (175 bps)0.1¢0.1¢0.0

12+ (300+ bps)0.1¢0.1¢—

8 (200 bps)0.1¢0.1¢—

6 (150 bps)0.1¢0.1¢0.0

10 (250 bps)0.1¢0.1¢—

9 (225 bps)0.1¢0.1¢—

11 (275 bps)0.1¢0.1¢—

Polymarket shows the last traded price; Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint. Where the Kalshi book is too wide to compare, the raw bid–ask range is shown instead and no difference is reported. Prices move continuously — confirm on the venue before trading.

Where to trade this

Polymarket review

USDC settlement, taker fees 0.75–1.80%, no interest on balances.

Kalshi review

CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, about 4% APY on idle cash.

Deciding between them? Read the full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison, or see the best prediction market apps.

How Many Fed Rate Cuts odds explained

The table above prices How Many Fed Rate Cuts on Polymarket and Kalshi at the same moment. Each figure is what one contract costs in cents, so 52.0¢ means the market implies a 52% chance. Contracts settle at $1, which makes the price and the implied probability the same number.

The two venues run separate order books, so the same outcome can sit several points apart. Where the gap reaches three points it is worth a look: that is roughly what a difference needs to be to survive Polymarket's 0.75–1.80% taker fee and Kalshi's per-contract charge. Our prediction market arbitrage guide covers how to trade a gap without getting caught with one leg filled.

Frequently asked questions

Where can I get the best odds on How Many Fed Rate Cuts?

The table above prices How Many Fed Rate Cuts on both venues, refreshed every ten minutes, with the cheaper side highlighted for each outcome. It is often not the same venue across the whole board.

Is there an arbitrage opportunity on How Many Fed Rate Cuts?

Differences of three points or more are flagged above — roughly what a gap needs to survive fees on both sides. Smaller ones are shown but rarely worth acting on; the arbitrage guide covers the execution risk.

Who is favourite in How Many Fed Rate Cuts?

0 (0 bps) carries the highest implied probability on Polymarket right now. The ranking reflects the most recent sync and moves with the market.

Do I owe tax on profits from this market?

Yes. Kalshi issues a 1099-MISC and Polymarket issues nothing, and there is no IRS guidance specific to prediction markets — see the tax guide.

More economics odds, or every market we track on the Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison. New to this? Start with how prediction markets work and the best prediction market apps.